Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

The Problem With Reality in 2014

By for Profit Confidential

U.S. Economy Halfway to a Recession AlreadyEarlier this month, Jeremy Siegal, a well-known “bull” on CNBC, took to the airwaves to predict the Dow Jones Industrial Average would go beyond 18,000 by the end of this year. Acknowledging overpriced valuations on the key stock indices are being ignored, he argued historical valuations should be taken with a grain of salt and nothing more. (Source: CNBC, July 2, 2014.)

Sadly, it’s not only Jeremy Siegal who has this point of view. Many other stock advisors who were previously bearish have thrown in the towel and turned bullish towards key stock indices—regardless of what the historical stock market valuation tools are saying.

We are getting to the point where today’s mentality about key stock indices—the sheer bullish belief stocks will only move higher—has surpassed the optimism that was prevalent in the stock market in 2007, before stocks crashed.

At the very core, when you pull away the stock buyback programs and the Fed’s tapering of the money supply and interest rates, there is one main factor that drives key stock indices higher or lower: corporate earnings. So, for key stock indices to continue to make new highs, corporate profits need to rise.

But there are two blatant threats to companies in the key stock indices and the profits they generate.

First, the U.S. economy is very, very weak. While we saw negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) just downgraded its U.S. economic projection. The IMF now expects the U.S. economy to grow by just 1.7% in 2014. (Source: International Monetary Fund, July 24, 2014.) One more negative quarter of GDP for the U.S., and we are in a technical recession. We’re already halfway there!

If the U.S. economy does not improve, companies on key stock indices will have troubles selling their goods and services, and their corporate earnings will suffer. It … Read More

Three Retail Stocks Showing Impressive Growth This Earnings Season

By for Profit Confidential

Three Retail Stocks That Are Nailing the Second QuarterIt wasn’t too long ago that NIKE, Inc. (NKE) reported another great quarter of solid growth in its business.

The company’s fiscal fourth-quarter numbers beat Wall Street consensus, and its sales from continuing operations grew 11% to $7.4 billion, or 13% on a currency-neutral basis.

In this market, double-digit growth is significant no matter if it’s in the top or bottom line.

Like the last several earnings seasons, corporations are typically only beating consensus on one financial metric (either earnings or revenues). But this is enough to keep investors buying.

Under Armour, Inc. (UA) blew the doors off of Wall Street consensus and the stock shot strongly higher.

The company reported a surge in new apparel sales. Total revenues grew a whopping 34% over the second quarter of last year to $610 million.

Breaking it down, the company’s apparel revenues grew 35% to $420 million, while footwear sales grew 34% to $110 million on new product offerings. The company experienced significant sales growth of 30% in North America, while international sales doubled (representing approximately 10% of total revenues).

Previous guidance for 2014 was for sales growth of between 24% and 25% over 2013. Management boosted this guidance to between 28% and 29%, with operating income expected to grow between 29% and 30% over last year.

This time last year, Under Armour was trading around $35.00 per share. It’s doubled since then, and the position has further momentum in this market.

It is pricey, however, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 60. But the stock is likely to stay this way; the business has operational momentum, and that’s what the Street likes.

Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) is another apparel manufacturer that just increased its guidance for the year.

Total revenues for the second quarter of 2014 grew a solid 16% to a record $324 million. Management cite… Read More

Small-Cap vs. Big-Cap: The Real Winners in This Market

By for Profit Confidential

Why I'm Not Giving Up on Small-Cap StocksHealthy second-quarter results from technology and banks are helping to drive buying in stocks. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 traded at an intraday record and is again looking toward 2,000, while the blue-chip DOW is edging toward another record.

While we are hearing about how the S&P 500 will break 2,000 and the DOW will reach 20,000, we are not hearing much about small-cap stocks, which have been under some pressure this year after leading the pack in 2013.

The Russell 2000 is struggling after failing to hold above 1,200 on two occasions; it’s currently down about 0.66% this year and 4.6% from its record.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Index Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

I recently read how the failure of the Russell 2000 to follow the broader stock market higher is a red flag that could warn of a pending correction in the stock market.

Now, while small-cap stocks are probably the most vulnerable to selling at this time, I don’t feel that it’s time to simply ignore this high-beta growth group and focus solely on big-cap stocks.

My thinking is that investors are simply dumping some risk from their portfolio after recording strong returns in 2013. It’s not that small-cap stocks are inferior to the S&P 500 companies. In fact, as long as the economy continues to grow, small-cap stocks will fare well.

You just need to have some patience and think longer-term, as some of these small companies will become big companies. Case in point: I highlighted touchscreen technology provider Synaptics Incorporated (NASDAQ/SYNA) in October 2013, when the stock was a small-cap at around $46.00. The stock has since nearly doubled to the $84.00 level and is looking good.

The reality is that you need to keep an eye on small-cap stocks, as this is where many of the big gainers will be and from which the big companies first began.

Buying small-cap stocks on stock market weakness, which we are seeing so far this year with this group… Read More

The Great Crash of 2014

A stock market crash bigger than what happened in 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.

In fact, we are predicting this crash will be even more devastating than the 1929 crash…

…the ramifications of which will hit the economy and Americans deeper than anything we’ve ever seen.

Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about this, we’ve just produced a video to warn investors called, “The Great Crash of 2014”

In case you are not familiar with our research work on the stock market:

In late 2001, in the aftermath of 9/11, we told our clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after we made that call.

We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish on gold.

Throughout 2002, we urged our readers to buy gold stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.

In November of 2007, we started begging our customers to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards, it was widely recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.

We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009.

And in March of 2009, we started telling our readers to jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175% from when we made that call in 2009 to today.

Many investors will find our next prediction hard to believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.

Even if you don’t own stocks, what’s about to happen will affect you!

I urge you to be among the first to get our next major prediction.
See it here now in this just-released alarming video.

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