Since May, when it was near an all-time low, the U.S. dollar has rallied. Compared to other major currencies of the world, the greenback is up five percent since July, as the chart below illustrates.
The question: should investors get into this U.S. dollar rally?
Dear reader, the U.S. dollar is not moving higher because the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are getting better. It’s moving higher because other parts of the global economy are doing worse than the U.S.
The eurozone economy is so weak that the European Central Bank has lowered interest rates again, pushing the value of the euro lower. In the United Kingdom, Scotland is looking for independence. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine continues without resolution. New troubles are brewing in the Middle East. China reported yesterday it would start pumping money into its largest banks.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Right now, with the majority of major world central banks either printing more of their paper money or bringing interest rates even lower, the U.S. is the best of the worst.
But I believe the rally in the U.S. dollar will be short-lived.
Central banks are trying to move away from the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency. At one point, trade in the global economy was dominated by the U.S. dollar. This is changing, slowly but surely.
Consider just one of many recent examples; the Chinese and Argentinian central banks will be doing an $11.0-billion currency swap operation. This will allow Argentina to increase its reserves and pay for Chinese imports in yuan—the deal was signed in July. (Source: Reuters, September 7, 2014.)
Putting this into simple words: the dollar has been thrown out the window when it comes to trade between China and Argentina.
And ask yourself this question: if you were the one running China or Russia, wouldn’t you want to get out of U.S. dollars so trade is denominated in your currency… Read More
Tomorrow, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reports its numbers for its first fiscal quarter of 2015. What the company has to say about its business conditions is material to the equity market.
Oracle is a benchmark technology stock that’s not expensively priced. The company offers dividends; its current yield is approximately 1.2%, which may not be enough for some investors looking for a large-cap, mature technology stock.
Oracle’s share price tends to experience waves of buying enthusiasm. If the company just slightly beats consensus, there will be solid buying in the stock.
But being a mature business, this company isn’t a fast grower. What it offers investors is a benchmark in enterprise information technology (IT) demand. A quick read of the company’s SEC form 10-Q can be very informative regarding enterprise customers and their spending.
Oracle’s share price has been steadily climbing back and it’s almost at its all-time record-high set during the technology bubble of 2000. It’s been a great comeback from the irrational exuberance of those days. The company’s long-term chart is featured below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Dollar for dollar, however, I still prefer Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) for those investors looking for a blue chip technology stock.
The company pays more in dividends, its valuation is about the same as Oracle’s, and it has a multifaceted business strategy that includes both consumer and enterprise customers.
Furthermore, I think Microsoft is more likely to deliver better capital gains over Oracle in the near- to medium-term.
This doesn’t mean that Oracle can’t accelerate its business growth going forward. All the company has to do is get the next business cycle in enterprise and government spending right, and it could deliver higher single-digit sales growth than recently (about five percent per year).
Micros… Read More
This is an entirely free service. No credit card required.
We hate spam as much as you do.