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Why I Bought More Gold This Morning

By Michael Lombardi

gold stocksOn a recent trip to Manhattan, on Fifth Avenue near Central Park, I saw a retail window with the following written in huge yellow letters, “Smart Has the Brains, But Stupid Has the Guts.” My daughter took a picture of this store front window and I’ve kept it in my cell phone picture memory since.

Why am I telling you this?

Over the past 10-year bull market in gold bullion prices, each time the market corrects, the naysayers come out and say, “The bull market in gold is over.” And each time they are wrong.

Have you noticed all the articles in the business pages of the newspapers and the Internet the past month on how deflation could become a big problem? Well, the gold naysayers love this type of media. The economy is improving as well and the U.S. dollar looks like a haven every time another world currency comes under pressure.

So, who would be stupid enough to jump more deeply into gold given the above points? Me.

As I’ve watched and participated in the gold bullion rally since late 2002, each time I see gold prices move lower, I see a buying opportunity. We all know that the summer months (based on seasonality price charts) are the worst time for gold bullion prices.

Gold bullion prices peaked at about $1,260 an ounce in late June of this year. Since then, the metal has fallen back about $100.00 an ounce to the $1,160-an-ounce level. Looking at a price chart, the metal could fall even further to $1,100 an ounce, but why take the chance and wait for even lower prices that may never even materialize? I’m not.

Gold has risen steadily in price from $300.00 an ounce in late 2002 to $1,260 last month, a gain of 320% in eight years. Just as higher than the previous December 31 for nine straight years now. This gold bull market is very strong.

The rise in gold prices could foreshadow a time down the road (could be a year, could be five years) when inflationary pressure will rise substantially…

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Corporate News Is Good, But It’s Still a Bear Market

By Mitchell Clark

Bear Stock MarketOne of the best companies to follow is E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE/DD), more commonly known as DuPont. This 208-year-old company is perhaps the greatest economic barometer due to its diversified global operations. If you want to know what’s happening in the industry, then all you have to do is follow DuPont.

The company just reported great second-quarter earnings and the numbers handily beat consensus estimates. This is a real accomplishment in this economy.

DuPont reported outstanding sales growth of some 26% to $8.6 billion in the second quarter. At a time when most large companies are struggling to generate any sales growth at all, this is a tremendous performance. Not only did the company experience higher selling prices in most of its markets, total volume of products sold grew a solid 21%. And the good news is that the company’s domestic U.S. operations experienced solid growth. Total U.S. sales grew 18% to $3.6 billion. Asia Pacific operations grew 47% to $1.8 billion.

Naturally, this strong performance translated right to the bottom line. Net income tripled to $1.2 billion, compared to 400 million dollars in the same quarter last year. And, to top it all off, DuPont increased its earnings guidance for all of 2010 to between $2.90 and $3.05 per share, up from the previous estimate of $2.50 to $2.70 per share.

I always make a point of following DuPont and its financial results. I don’t own the stock, but what the company says about its operations is telling because of all the businesses it operates: chemicals; agriculture; electronics; and automotive.

But, for all the good news at this particular company, the equity market isn’t much enthused. Investors are caught in a funk, just like consumers. We’re in a bear market and sentiment just isn’t strong enough to carry good news. That’s why some downside protection in this market is a must.

I’m worried about after earnings season, when equity investors will have to rely solely on economic data. Sentiment is already fragile and the stock market seems only willing to act mostly on bad news…

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Bulls Have the Wheel, But for How Long?

By George Leong

Bull MarketThe bulls are in control, but you have to wonder how long it will last. The DOW recorded its third straight session of triple-digit gains on Monday and, in the process, rallied above 10,500 on a broad market rally. More importantly, the S&P 500 also closed above its 200-day moving average (MA) after recently managing to hold above the critical 1,040 level, which was a key development.

With the gains, all of the four key indices are trading in positive territory on the year, quite a reversal from just recently when the Russell 2000 was in a technical bear market, but is now down only 10.74% from its 52-week high. All four of the key stock indices have rallied above the 50-day and 200-day MAs — a bullish sign. Now we will see if the gains are sustainable. The market will need to see continued strong earnings and economic news to hold and advance higher. I expect some profit-taking given the overbought condition and hesitant Relative Strength, and based on the recent trading pattern.

As far as investor sentiment is determined by the new-high/new-low ratio (NHNL). The trend of the NYSE NHNL had been edging higher, with 13 straight sessions bullish from June 10 to June 28, prior to a dip to neutral, but 12 of the last 13 sessions were bullish. The near-term trend is positive. In the technology area, investor sentiment on the NASDAQ has been edging lower, with only 13 bullish readings since May 6, but the last two sessions were bullish.

NASDAQ

The near-term technical picture is moderately bullish on above average Relative Strength (RS), so there could be additional upside moves in the near term.

The NASDAQ is eyeing 2,300 and is above its 50-day MA of 2,228 and its 200-day MA of 2,260. Be careful, as the 50-day MA remains below the 200-day MA, but it has been edging higher. Watch to see if the index can hold, as the downward channel appears to be in place. The index is overbought, so watch for some near-term selling pressure.

DOW

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Taming Wall Street

By Inya Ivkovic

Wall Street ReformI admit; I love it when President Obama feels on top of the world. Last week, he passed into law what is considered the most comprehensive overhaul of lending and high finance rules and regulations since the Great Depression. Its goal is simple. Wall Street should never again have the power to set off a recession. Or, as Obama put it, “Because of this law, the American people will never be asked again to foot the bill for Wall Street’s mistakes.”

The new law is complex, but Washington insisted it also be translated in pocketbook terms, giving emphasis to safeguards for borrowers against manipulative and dishonest lenders. The lawmakers claim that this historic piece of legislation will be “the strongest financial protection for consumers in the nation’s history.”

It came with the price, though. Obama has lost quite a bit of public support in the heated discussions leading to last week’s passing of the bill into law. Republicans also disagreed, viewing the bill as an unnecessary burden on small banks and small companies relying on banks’ help to keep their credit lines and doors open for business. Stifling this symbiotic relationship, the opposition argued, could cost the U.S. economy even more jobs.

Obama counteracted, stating, “Wall Street’s near collapse was a crisis born of a failure of responsibility from certain corners of Wall Street to the halls of power in Washington.”

Of course, Washington can drag this particular horse only halfway to the water. The financial sector and market regulators will have to go the rest of the distance by rewriting their own regulations to meet the requirements of the new law, which could open a whole other can of Wall Street lobbying worms. Even Obama is aware of the dangers ahead that could pull teeth right out of his financial reform bill. He warned, “Regulators will have to be vigilant.”

What has angered those opposing the bill? After billions of dollars have been poured into the financial systems at the height of the credit crisis to soothe the markets and provide at least an illusion of…

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