Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Why the Chances of a Total Collapse in Stock Prices Are Increasing

By for Profit Confidential

Why You Shouldn't Be Buying Stocks NowMark Twain once said, “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.” For stock market investors, the time to pause and reflect is now.

Everywhere you look (except in these pages), you’ll find individual investors and institutions bullish on key stock indices. It’s like they believe they can only continue going in one direction—up. Not much attention is being paid to the fundamentals that suggest a market sell-off is nearing.

In January and February, investors bought $43.29 billion worth of long-term stock mutual funds. While March’s money flows into mutual funds are not available, looking at the weekly data, it suggests investors continued to buy the key stock indices. (Source: Investment Company Institute, last accessed April 2014.)

Please look at the chart below of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index. This index looks at how exposed managers are to the key stock indices.

NAAIM Exposure Index ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

This chart says fund managers are heavily exposed to key stock indices, with 90% of their portfolios invested in stocks. The exposure to the key stock indices has been high since the beginning of 2014, but at the same time, stock prices have been coming down.

Sadly, this isn’t all. Pension funds, the so-called conservative investors, have increased their exposure to key stock indices as well. Take the New York State Teachers’ Retirement System, for example. It is one of the biggest in the U.S. In 2013, the net assets of the fund increased to $95.4 billion. Its exposure to the equity market was $39.87 billion—roughly 41% of all assets were in U.S. stocks. (Source: New York State Teachers’ Retirement System web site, last accessed April 7, 2014.) This fund is taking the retirement money of school teachers and investing almost half of it in the stock market. Isn’t t… Read More

My Top Energy Pick with Market-Defying Momentum

By for Profit Confidential

My Top Energy Stock Pick for This Slow-Growth MarketThe strength in this market is with oil, as both the spot price and oil stocks are holding up very well.

While the broader market has been experiencing a well-deserved price retrenchment, both large- and small-cap oil stocks have been on the comeback trail. The price strength is helpful as speculative fervor continues to come out of equities. The performance illustrates how helpful sectoral portfolio diversification can be when asset prices fall.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is not expensively priced at approximately 9.5 times trailing earnings. The stock sold off significantly at the beginning of the year but has since recovered nicely. Currently yielding just less than four percent, this oil and gas story is similar to the other big integrated energy companies: it isn’t about production growth but more about income for investors.

One company we’ve looked at several times in these pages is Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG). This is a Bakken oil play that’s really doing well. This stock was consistently expensive, being a highly liquid favorite of institutional investors, but earnings have caught up to the share price and the story is still intact. This junior energy producer still has a very bright future. The company’s stock chart is featured below:

 Kodiak Oil And Gas Corp ChartChart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Energy consistently has a role to play in equity market portfolios, and it doesn’t have to be pure-play production stories. In terms of resource investing, I find it much more attractive over precious metals, particularly for investors looking for some longevity in their holdings.

In an environment that’s likely to remain slow-growing for several years, I like both the income and capital gains potential from oil stocks in pipelines, energy storage, processing, and transmission.

Previously, we looked at Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) out of Garfield Heights, Ohio. This is a busine… Read More

My Simple, Safe Investment Strategy for Playing Risky Stocks

By for Profit Confidential

Here's a Strategy to Play Momentum Stocks While Limiting RiskThere’s some hand-holding required out there in the stock market. We have seen destruction in the momentum biotech and Internet stocks that have corrected by more than 30%.

Now we are hearing some analysts on Wall Street saying to jump back in—but I’m hesitant at this juncture, as the downward risk is likely not over yet.

The reality is that, given the superlative gains recorded in 2013 by many of these biotech and technology momentum stocks, you shouldn’t be surprised to see the current malaise.

The fact that many of these highflying stocks in the stock market have more than doubled in a year should be a red flag. My simplest advice is to wait for the selling to subside in the stock market before you jump into these stocks.

You also need to be careful when hearing the bullish comments by Wall Street firms on these momentum stocks. Many of these firms have investment banking relationships with these stocks; it’s only natural to support your clients in the bad times.

Don’t get fooled by the stock market rhetoric. Instead, take a prudent approach to the stock market.

You don’t want to be caught exposed on this stock market unless you are fine with losing money should the selling intensify. Like I wrote at the beginning of the year, making money on the stock market will not be easy this year and capital preservation should be your objective.

Now, if you are willing to risk some capital and feel a stock market bottom is near, then what I suggest you do is consider using call options as a risk management investment strategy.

By employing call options, you can partake in a possible stock market bounce, while also controlling the amount of capital you have at risk, which is the premium paid for the option.

Let me show you how this simple strategy works using Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ/TSLA) as an example. (Note: this is only for illustration and is not meant to be an actual trade recommendation.)… Read More

The Great Crash of 2014

A stock market crash bigger than what happened in 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.

In fact, we are predicting this crash will be even more devastating than the 1929 crash…

…the ramifications of which will hit the economy and Americans deeper than anything we’ve ever seen.

Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about this, we’ve just produced a video to warn investors called, “The Great Crash of 2014”

In case you are not familiar with our research work on the stock market:

In late 2001, in the aftermath of 9/11, we told our clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after we made that call.

We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish on gold.

Throughout 2002, we urged our readers to buy gold stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.

In November of 2007, we started begging our customers to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards, it was widely recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.

We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009.

And in March of 2009, we started telling our readers to jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175% from when we made that call in 2009 to today.

Many investors will find our next prediction hard to believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.

Even if you don’t own stocks, what’s about to happen will affect you!

I urge you to be among the first to get our next major prediction.
See it here now in this just-released alarming video.

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