The fundamentals for higher gold bullion prices continue to impress. The table below illustrates the output from U.S. mines in the first six months of 2014 compared to the first six months of 2013.
In the below chart, we quickly see that since March of 2014, production of the precious metal has been quickly declining. Meanwhile, on the demand side of the equation, we see increased demand for gold bullion from the East—especially from China.
China recently launched a gold bullion market on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for international investors. The goal of this exchange is to gain more control over the price of the precious metal in yuan (the official currency of China). China wants to have price control over gold bullion, just like the West does with their daily settings in New York and London.
U.S. Gold Mine Output, First Six Months of 2014 & 2013
|Month||2014 Output (Kilograms)||2013 Output (Kilograms)||% Change|
Data source: U.S. Geological Survey web site, last accessed October 7, 2014.
___________________________________________________… Read More
The fundamentals that drive gold prices higher are in full force and improving. Central banks are buying more of the precious metal (to add to their reserves), while countries that are known to be big consumers of gold bullion post increased demand.
According to the India Bullion & Jewellers’ Association, India’s monthly gold bullion imports are expected to rise by as much as 50% in the coming few months—in the range of 70 tonnes to 75 tonnes per month compared to an average of 50 tonnes to 60 tonnes now. (Source: Reuters, September 18, 2014.) This is mainly due to the festival/wedding season fast approaching in India.
If India continues to import 70 tonnes of gold bullion each month, then the total imports just to India will be 31% of all world gold mine production (based on 2,700 tons in annual mine production).
India used to be the biggest importer of gold bullion until China took over as the biggest importer of the precious metal two years ago. And demand for gold in China remains strong as well.
But while demand for the precious metal is rising, production is declining.
In the first five months of 2014, U.S. mine production … Read More
The numbers are in…
In the second quarter of 2014, world central banks bought 117.8 tonnes of gold bullion compared to 92.1 tonnes a year earlier—a jump of 28%. Central banks have been net purchasers of gold bullion for 14 consecutive quarters!
According to the World Gold Council, “Economic and geopolitical events throughout the world are sources of ongoing instability and uncertainty. Such events reinforce the requirement for appropriate risk management by central banks through holding gold reserves for asset diversification.” (Source: “Gold Demand Trends Q2 2014,” World Gold Council web site, August 14, 2014.)
Hog wash, I say. Central banks are buying gold bullion because they are slowly moving away from U.S. dollars as their reserve currency and replacing them with gold bullion.
In the second quarter, Russia purchased 54 tonnes of gold bullion, Kazakhstan purchased seven tonnes, and Tajikistan bought three tonnes. Combined, just these three central banks made up more than 54% of all the official purchases of gold bullion in the second quarter.
You won’t see the central banks of France or Germany buying gold bullion because they already have enough (that’s if Germany can ever get its gold back from the U.S.).
So if demand … Read More
Well surprise, surprise, surprise.
Gold bullion rallied just under $50.00 an ounce yesterday…and nobody expected it. (Okay, maybe just me. In a single day yesterday, my portfolio went up by twice the amount the stock market has risen in all of 2014.)
Going through all the major financial web sites, I read story after story yesterday on why gold was rising so fast. They were all wrong; just reporters grabbing at straws, trying to explain something they know very little about.
As I started writing in these pages in 2014, inflation is becoming a real problem in America. Years ago, I started writing about how all this money the Federal Reserve is creating out of thin air would become inflationary. That’s exactly what is starting to happen now.
Why is the Fed starting to pull back on its money printing operation with the goal of being out of the money printing business by the end of this year? Why is the Fed telling us that after keeping interest rates near zero for years, by the end of next year, the federal funds rate will move up to 1.13% and by the end of the following year, it will move to … Read More
While the Federal Reserve has cut back on its money printing program, the fact of the matter is that the “official” U.S. national debt is closing in on $18.0 trillion. The unofficial national debt (when obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, and now Obamacare are taken into consideration) is closer to $200 trillion.
The Japanese national debt just hit one quadrillion yuan.
Many countries in the eurozone are drowning under debt. The European Central Bank recently started talking about printing money to finally get the eurozone out of its mess.
All of this is very well-known to Profit Confidential readers.
Why do I bring this up again today? I’m back focusing on debt because it is becoming more and more apparent that the only way to reduce the record national debt many industrialized countries have accumulated since the Credit Crisis of 2008 is to print even more money.
And the collapse in the volatility of gold bullion prices could be pointing to just that. To see what I’m talking about, take a look at this chart:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
In April of 2013, when the sharp decline in gold bullion prices began, volatility for gold prices was very … Read More
The most compelling argument for owning gold bullion I have ever heard…
A 63-year-old businessman went to a doctor complaining he had swallowed a bottle cap in anger after he had a fight with his wife. After a three-hour surgery, the doctors found 14 ounces of gold bullion in the man’s stomach. The police and Customs were called, and the gold recovered was confiscated. (Source: “Gold bars removed from Indian man’s stomach,” BBC News, April 18, 2014.)
This is just one of the many ways smugglers are bringing gold bullion into India. In this particular case, this man was willing to die for gold!
You see, the Indian government has imposed rigorous duties on importing gold bullion into the country. As a result, imports of gold bullion between May of 2013 and November fell more than 88%. In May of 2013, 162,000 kilograms (kg) of gold bullion was imported into India, and by November 2013, it had declined to 19,300 kg. (Source: Ibid.) As the government imposed its high duties, smuggling of the precious metal into the country increased. And as I just told you, people are risking their lives to get the yellow metal into the country.
To recap … Read More
My long-time readers know I’ve been a gold bullion bull for years—ever since 2002! And whenever gold bullion prices get weak, I just buy more. In fact, last year, when gold bullion prices took it on the chin, I bought more.
I like to buy an investment when it is down and out of favor. And that’s how I look at gold today. When I study the demand/supply equation, I see demand rising (especially from China) and supply decreasing as companies pull back on their exploration budgets because gold prices have come down. Because of this, 2014 production of gold bullion will be less than 2013’s.
In 2013, China bought 1,132 tonnes of the precious metal, making it the biggest buyer of gold in the world. According to the World Gold Council, demand for gold bullion in China will increase by 20% by 2017 to 1,350 tonnes annually. (Source: World Gold Council, April 15, 2014.)
Of interest, Chinese households have savings of $7.5 trillion in bank accounts but only $300-billion worth of gold bullion as savings. (Source: Ibid.) Imagine what would happen if only 10% of household bank savings in China moved towards gold bullion.
According to the U.S. Geological … Read More
From our recent reader survey, I see our readers are not that concerned about what happens in the eurozone. But there’s a phenomenon occurring there that I believe every investor who is interested in gold bullion should be aware of.
Let me explain…
It’s a known fact that when central banks print more of their paper money, it’s usually bullish for the yellow metal. We saw this after 2009, when the Federal Reserve started to print more paper money; gold bullion prices skyrocketed.
In the eurozone, there continues to be major economic problems in the region. Italy, the third-biggest economic hub in the eurozone, has reported its unemployment rate hit 13% in February—the highest unemployment rate ever recorded in the country. (Source: Reuters, April 1, 2014.)
To help countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal with their economic woes, the European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its benchmark interest rate—but that hasn’t spurred bank lending as bad debts on the books of major eurozone banks keep piling up. Even once-strong eurozone countries like France are under economic scrutiny.
Now, as no surprise, the ECB has started talk about following the same route the Federal Reserve has taken—printing paper money.
At … Read More
Central banks are still adding gold bullion to their reserves and the smaller countries are getting into the act big-time.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the month of March, Iraq’s central bank added 36 tonnes of gold bullion to its reserves—worth about $1.5 billion. This is the first purchase by the central bank since August of 2012, when it bought 23.9 tonnes of gold. (Source: Reuters, March 25, 2014.)
Sure, you could say, “Michael, 36 tonnes of gold bullion is nothing for a central bank.”
I agree. But looking at the bigger picture, it is very significant for a small country like Iraq—a country whose annual gross domestic product (GDP) is smaller than Amazon.com’s sales for 2013—to be getting into gold bullion in a big way. The official announcement from the central bank of Iraq sent the message that it bought the gold bullion to stabilize the country’s currency and add insurance to their reserves.
Since 2009, central banks around the global economy have become net buyers of gold bullion, and I don’t think they will stop anytime soon. The main reason for this is that the central banks see a significant amount of volatility coming to … Read More
Copper is considered an industrial metal, used in industries across the board. When copper prices fall, it’s usually an indicator of a slowdown in the global economy. On the contrary, gold bullion isn’t much of an industrial metal; rather, it is used as a hedge against uncertainty in the global economy.
When you look at these two metals together, often referred to as the gold-to-copper ratio, they tell us something very important: the ratio of how many pounds of copper it takes to buy one ounce of gold bullion has long been an indicator of sentiment in the global economy.
If the gold-to-copper ratio is in a downtrend, it means investors are betting on the global economy to grow. In contrast, if it is increasing (if the number of pounds of copper it costs to buy an ounce of gold is rising), it tells us investors are concerned about protecting their wealth in a slowing global economy.
Below, you’ll find a chart of the gold-to-copper ratio.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Looking at the chart above, it is clear something happened at the beginning of 2014. Investors became very worried. Since the beginning of the year, the gold-to-copper ratio has increased … Read More
« Older Entries
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"