Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012 Founded in 1921 and located near Denver, Colorado, Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM) is one of the world’s largest gold mining and producing companies with operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico. The company employs 34,000 people. Newmont is included in the S&P 500 Index. In 2007, Newmont became the first gold company selected to be part of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index.
Posted by George Leong, B.Comm. in gold stocks on March 26th, 2012 We are seeing some calm return to the equity markets after Greece managed to convince its debt holders to take a loss of over $200 billion. The aftermath has hurt gold, as the precious metal has hit a snag; it’s down below $1,700 and looking to a possible retest at $1,600. A break below could send the precious metal down to $1,525.
With the current weakness in gold, I do not feel it is time to dump gold stocks and I believe major price weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate stocks. I favor the metal plays and continue to smell opportunities, especially in the mining companies and junior gold miners. China and India continue to be the world’s top buyers of gold and this is expected to continue. The Chinese have also been buying mining companies around the world in an effort to increase the country’s reserves. This is a reason why I like some of the smaller mining companies, especially those with a massive reserve of proven metals in the ground waiting to be developed and needing a cash rich partner to get the ore out of the ground. You can buy the major gold players such as Free port-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE/FCX), Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE/ABX), and Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM), as I discussed in The Gold Stock at the Top of My List, but for an opportunity for some real big gains, you need to own some of the smaller miners. If you want to play the small mining companies, there are hundreds of plays. I have listed several small mining companies below that look interesting for the speculative trader. Note that these are not specific recommendations to buy these stocks at the moment; just a list of promising mining companies to look into. Small-cap gold miner Jaguar Mining Inc. (NYSE/JAG) is an interesting miner. The stock surged in late 2011 on news of a potential $1.0-billion takeover bid from China-based Shandong Gold Group, but the bid never came to fruition for whatever reasons. Keegan Resources Inc. (AMEX/KGN, TSX/KGN) continues to report positive feasibility results specifically at its Esaase Project in south west Ghana. I like this stock as an aggressive small-cap play with above-average price appreciation potential. Another I like is Canada-based Taseko Mines Limited (AMEX/TGB), which mines for copper and gold in Canada. The small-cap has a market-cap of $679 million and is profitable with above-average price appreciation potential. With it trading at 5.78X its estimated 2013 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60, I like the value here. Take a look at small-cap Golden Star Resources Ltd. (AMEX/GSS). The gold company has operating mines in western Ghana and south west Ghana, along with exploration properties in Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, Cote d’Ivoire, and Brazil. With Golden Start trading at 6.65X its 2013 EPS, I like the valuation and potential for long-term gains. For gold traders, check out small-cap Nevsun Resources Ltd. (AMEX/NSU), which beat on EPS and revenues. Within the non-precious mining companies, take a look at Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (NYSE/TC), a miner of molybdenum—a metal used for creating stainless steel and other applications, including the production of rare earth used in electronics. My advice to you is to buy a mixture of exploration-stage gold mining companies along with small to large gold producers. Under this scenario, you can play both the potential aggressive gains of exploration stocks and the steady returns of the large gold producers.
Posted by George Leong, B.Comm. in stock market on January 30th, 2012 With only two sessions remaining in January, the month delivered strong returns in the stock market. And, while the advance has been strong to begin the year, you might recall that a similar start in 2011 ended in a mixed trading year. While investor sentiment is bullish and breadth is positive, the lack of mass market participation is worrisome and opens up stocks to downside risk.
The charts of the key stock market indices remain strong, but only the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing a bullish golden cross, with the 50-day moving average (MA) above the 200-day MA. And, despite bullish near-term signals, the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 are holding on to a death cross, in which the 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA. A bullish event on the charts occurs after the key stock indices have peaked on three successive upward moves with lower peaks; stocks have broken higher and suggest more gains. And, as I said, the light volume on up days is a red flag and indicates stock market risk. The end result is a bearish divergence forming between price and volume, adding to the stock market risk. The European debt crisis continues to be a major risk factor. The talks between Greece and its creditors to reach a debt swap deal have yet to be done and there is speculation that the country will be allowed to have a form of controlled default. The problem is that this would likely send jitters through the eurozone and global markets, wreaking havoc. My advice is to ride the upward moves in the stock market, but make sure you have put hedges in place to protect your gains. It’s also never a bad idea to take some profits. The mining area continues to be positive in my view this year. Metals are strong, with gold back above $1,700, while silver powered above $33.00. Copper also edged higher, hinting at an economic recovery, as the metal is used in many industrial applications and is often seen as a barometer on the global economies. February Gold is at $1,725 and above its 50-day MA of $1,667 and 200-day MA of $1,642 on stronger Relative Strength. Gold is overbought, so look for selling pressure. My advice to you is to buy a mixture of exploration-stage gold mining stocks along with small to large gold producers. In this scenario, you can play both the potential aggressive gains of exploration stocks and the steady returns of the large gold producers. Buy gold and silver stocks on weakness. SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) is worth a look. I like silver as a trade, but strategist John Stephenson is extremely bullish and feels that silver is heading towards $50.00 an ounce based on a historical ratio to gold. The March Silver is bullish and holding above $33.00. The contract is above its 50-day MA of $30.86, but below its 200-day MA of $35.79. The Relative Strength is strong, but there’s an overbought condition. Silver plays to take a look at include Endeavor Silver Corp. (NYSE/EXK), MAG Silver Corp. (AMEX/MVG), and Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE/SVM). On the energy front, increased optimism towards the global economies will drive up oil prices. The March WTI Oil is holding above the $100.00 level and at its 50-day MA of $99.45 and 200-day MA of $96.54. A bullish golden cross is holding, with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA. Whatever you are trading, the key is prudence and not over-committing to any one area in the stock market. In the large-cap gold space, Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM) is a steady performer; read about it in Newmont Mining: A Class Act in Gold.
Posted by George Leong, B.Comm. in gold stocks on January 9th, 2012 After the tech bubble in March 2000 popped and before the recent financial and credit crises struck, at least three sectors have managed to post significant gains: bonds; real estate; and small-caps. For some reason, however, gold remained under the radar for most investors. Yet, since the stock market peak, prices have climbed past many psychological marks. The shares of companies that mine the metal have gone for the ride.
The perennial question for any gold investor is whether to buy bullion or gold mining stocks. I favor gold stocks over the higher risk of other commodity options. While generally favoring gold stocks, I view Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM) in particular as a really good investment, because we see this stock bringing value to your portfolio for years to come. Without a doubt, for those investors looking to hedge their portfolios with gold exposure, Newmont Mining deserves to be at the top of the list. This company stands out among other players for two reasons: 1) size; and 2) low production costs, even in the rising price environment. Over the years, Newmont has grown rapidly through mergers and acquisitions, as well as the development of its existing reserves. This strategy resulted in the company’s diversified risks; namely, unlike junior producers, Newmont doesn’t depend on one or two of its mines for its future and it is certainly not exposed to politically unstable regions. In that regard, the risk is spread out, as the company continues to maintain an aggressive worldwide exploration program and is actively participating in and taking advantage of the ongoing industry consolidations. In terms of costs, Newmont enjoys an overall favorable cost structure, although the recent quarter painted a very bleak picture when it came to capital expenditures. Its South American operations are the major factor in keeping the company’s costs down. This is particularly true with the Yanacocha property in Peru, where cash costs are in the lowest per-ounce price range. The company’s diversified portfolio of low-cost mines allows it to remain profitable, even during prolonged weakness in the gold bullion market. In the past 10 years, Newmont has posted net losses three times; yet each year it has generated positive operating cash flows. Over the past five years, Newmont’s investment rate has been around 60% (the investment rate is the percentage of profits the company has returned back to its business operations). This strategy is consistent with what most producers do; return every dollar earned, and then some, back into the operations. However, with Newmont, it seems to come with ease, adding further to its attractiveness, as it can grow even during periods of depressed gold prices and at a lower investment rate. Newmont’s cash flows are highly sensitive to the price of gold, because the company remains largely unhedged, thus exposing itself to the whims of the gold market. However, market data and the current economic environment suggest that the gold market is dancing with the bulls, so the company’s unhedged strategy promises profits, as the price of gold rises further. This is the stock that saw its market price go up double percentage points over the past three years and its sales double every three years. The company is growing aggressively—both internally and by acquisitions—and has sufficient cash in the bank to finance that growth. Newmont Mining appears to be the perfect choice for investors looking for a company with excellent fundamentals, a proven track record, and experienced and knowledgeable management. Note that this is not a recommendation necessarily to buy the stock right now, but you should definitely take a look at it. Newmont is a leader in gold. In technology, a company that has fallen on hard times, but that I feel is set for fresh growth is Microsoft, which you can read about in Microsoft May Be Set for Prime Time.
Posted by George Leong, B.Comm. in gold investments, Gold Mining Stocks, gold stocks, Newmont on November 11th, 2011 Since the bursting of the tech bubble in March 2000 and before the recent financial and credit crises struck, at least three sectors have managed to post significant gains: bonds; real estate; and small-caps. For some reason, however, gold remained under the radar for most investors. Yet, since the stock market peak, prices have climbed past many psychological marks. The shares of companies that mine the metal have gone along for the ride.
The perennial question for any gold investor is whether to buy gold bullion or gold mining stocks. I favor gold stocks over the higher risk of other commodity options. While generally favoring gold stocks, I view Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM) in particular as a strong example of the type of stock that should bring value to your portfolio for years to come. Without a doubt, for those investors looking to hedge their portfolios with gold exposure, Newmont Mining deserves to be at the top of the list. This company stands out among other players for two reasons: 1) size; and 2) low production costs, even in the rising price environment. Over the years, Newmont has grown rapidly through mergers and acquisitions, as well as the development of its existing reserves. This strategy resulted in the company’s diversified risks; namely, unlike junior producers, Newmont doesn’t depend on one or two of its mines for its future and it is certainly not exposed to politically unstable regions. In that regard, the risk is spread out, as the company continues to maintain an aggressive worldwide exploration program and is actively participating in and taking advantage of the ongoing industry consolidations. In terms of costs, Newmont enjoys an overall favorable cost structure, although the recent quarter painted a very bleak picture when it came to capital expenditures. Its South American operations are the major factor in keeping the company’s costs down. This is particularly true with the Yanacocha property in Peru, where cash costs are in the lowest-per-ounce price range. The company’s diversified portfolio of low-cost mines allows it to remain profitable, even during prolonged weakness in the gold bullion market. In the past 10 years, Newmont has posted net losses three times, yet each year it has generated positive operating cash flows. Over the past five years, Newmont’s investment rate has been around 60% (investment rate is the percentage of profits the company has returned back to its business operations). This strategy is consistent with what most producers do; return every dollar earned, and then some, back into the operations. However, with Newmont, it seems to come with ease, adding further to its attractiveness, as it can grow even during periods of depressed gold prices and at a lower investment rate. Newmont’s cash flows are highly sensitive to the price of gold, because the company remains largely unhedged, thus exposing itself to the whims of the gold market. However, market data and the current economic environment suggest that the gold market is dancing with the bulls, so the company’s unhedged strategy promises profits, as the price of gold rises further. This is the stock that saw its market price go up double percentage points over the past three years and its sales double every three years. The company is growing aggressively—both internally and by acquisitions—and has sufficient cash in the bank to finance that growth. Newmont Mining appears to be the perfect choice for investors looking for a company with excellent fundamentals, a proven track record, and experienced and knowledgeable management. This is not a recommendation necessarily to buy the stock right now, but definitely take a look at it. Newmont is a leader in gold. In technology, a company that has fallen on hard times, but that I feel is set for fresh growth is Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT), which you can read about in Microsoft May Be Set for Prime Time. Stocks are currently vulnerable to the downside selling that I recently discussed in Economic Analysis: Upward Moves Positive, But Resistance Will Be Difficult. So keep an eye on that with any stock you’re considering.
Posted by Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. in gold, gold investments, Stock Market Advice on January 24th, 2011 If pressed to make one buy recommendation (other than farm land and/or distressed real estate), I would still pick gold. Make no mistake; all the price of gold needs to do is stay about the same and 99% of gold miners will be making money hand over fist.
I love reading the headlines on gold. They are always overblown. “…gold prices slammed by Brazil rate hike…” Well, not really. The spot price only went down a little percentage wise. Frankly, I have a real hard time with headline writers. Everything now is a formula for your eyeballs. Don’t believe everything you read. Consider Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE/ABX), which is off almost 10 points from its recent 52-week high. Here is one of the best senior gold producers in the world, which has an excellent long-term track record of generating wealth for shareholders. Consensus earnings estimates predict solid growth for the next several years and the company pays a dividend. This stock actually looks very reasonably priced now. Then there’s Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE/GG), which isn’t quite a big as Barrick. This company also pays a dividend to shareholders, has strong growth expectations for both revenues and earnings, and is down about nine points from its recent high. It’s also the same story with Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM), another large-cap producer. Yielding about the same as GG and ABX, this stock is down about 10 points from its recent high and earnings are looking very strong for 2010 and 2011. My best guess is that the spot price of gold will actually trade around its current level for most of this year (barring any major new shocks) and this doesn’t worry me. A lot of resource stocks have been sold off in recent weeks for the sole purpose of profit taking. When it comes to precious metal equities, institutional investors do have a herd mentality. There are a lot of reasons you can cite in making the case for strong gold prices. The biggest one in my mind is debt—sovereign debt in Europe and the United States. Eventually, someone is going to have to pay for all this re-inflation and debt financing. Unless there are some serious spending cuts in government budgets, investors won’t really want to own U.S. dollars. In any event, gold is a worthy asset in any investment portfolio. The risk in the global marketplace is that great. 
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