Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

Archive for the ‘Apple’ Category


When the CrackBerry’s No Longer Addictive

investor sentimentI recall back in 1999 when I came across a small Canadian technology company that had developed a unique smartphone with real-time e-mailing. At that time, e-mailing was still largely confined to computers, so I thought this was a novel concept that had growth written all over it. The small Canadian company was Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ/RIMM), which was started by Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis in a small city in Ontario, Canada.

I initiated coverage on Research In Motion (RIM) at around $5.00 and watched the stock surged to over $140.00 by May 2008, up 2,700%. There was nothing close to RIM’s mobile e-mail technology offered through its “BlackBerry” personal digital assistant (PDA). Corporate users around the world and especially in the U.S. began to coin the PDA the “CrackBerry” due to its addictive qualities for those who needed to stay in constant touch.

But that was then. Over the years, the advent of smartphones has steadily challenged the dominance of the BlackBerry, but the company’s position on top was not challenged until the appearance of the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) “iPhone.” The fateful day for RIM was June 29, 2007.

In nearly five years, the Apple iPhone has leapfrogged ahead of RIM’S BlackBerry to become the most sought-after smartphone in the world, albeit the dominant market is the U.S. In Canada—RIM’s country of origin—the BlackBerry is holding on to its market, mainly with the youths who love the “BBM” instant-messaging feature of the BlackBerry. But Apple did not get to where it is now by being lax and not being aware of any competitive threat. To try to win market share amongst the youth and against the BBM feature, Apple has its own plans to launch a more affordable iPhone that will have its own proprietary instant-messaging service.

While RIM is not yet dead money, it’s pretty close, unless under its new leader, Thorsten Gerhard Heins, the company can come up with both a defensive and offensive answer to Apple and its iPhone and “iPad” tablet. I feel it will be difficult for RIM given the amazing brand consciousness of Apple as a global icon and the must-have smartphone.

Wall Street is not optimistic about RIM as a buying opportunity. The consensus estimate call for revenues to contract 5.20% in fiscal 2012 and another 5.70% in fiscal 2013. Earnings are estimated to decline to $4.15 per diluted share in fiscal 2012 and $2.89 in fiscal 2013. Clearly, the company is contracting and, unless we see a turnaround, RIM will be dead money amid bearish investor sentiment.

The feeling on the Street is that the BlackBerry has lost its momentum to not only Apple, but also to new-generation smartphones employing the “Android” and “Windows” platforms.

The reality is that the BlackBerry no longer has that glamour that it once held. The product is seen as archaic and old. Consumers are dumping their BlackBerry and buying the iPhone and Android phones. Apple has millions waiting anxiously for new products and line-ups for days to buy. RIM draws little excitement and coverage for new products.

As I’ve said before, Apple is indeed the “best of breed.”

Institutions continue to buy Apple in spite of the stock trading at over $500.00, which I discussed in Making the Best Investments: Should You Follow the Pro Money?


My Tribute to Steve Jobs—
Visionary and Leader

The big news on Wednesday was the passing of Steve Jobs, the visionary who led Apple Inc. to new heights. But with his death, the future of Apple will be the constant subject of debate.The big news on Wednesday was the passing of Steve Jobs, the visionary who led Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) to new heights. But with his death, the future of Apple will be the constant subject of debate. The concern obviously will be the ability of Apple to continue to drive innovation without Jobs. Apple is trading down about 1.75% in the pre-market.

Apple is the largest company in the world, with an astounding market cap in excess of $350 billion, which would rank it 29th on the International Monetary Fund GDP rankings for 2010. That’s impressive; but, at one point back in 1997, the stock was hemorrhaging at below $5.00, suffering a slow death and on the verge of collapse. Co-founder Steve Jobs came back to run Apple in 1997 to try to turn the ailing company around. Apple subsequently bounced higher, but fell back to the $7.00 range in 2002. Institutions and retail investors alike began to dump the stock, running for the exits.

Undeterred, Jobs introduced radical changes to Apple to re-invent the company via new and flashy desktops, laptops, and eventually leading to the “iPod,” “iPhone,” and “iPad.”

With this change in direction, Apple would ultimately become the darling of the investment community and techies worldwide. But what happened at Apple is not an aberration.

Companies do move up and down. The key is to look for companies such as Apple that are going through operational issues but where there is some hidden, core value. That was the case with Apple. Investors recognizing this great opportunity in 1997 have since made over 75 times their money. An investment of about $13,000 in Apple in 1997 would make you a millionaire today. A $100,000 investment is worth nearly $8.0 million!

Now, if someone would ask me, “What are the best stocks?” Apple would definitely be up there. The reality is that Apple is the “best of breed.” Just look at the iPad sales. Apple sold 9.2 million in the second quarter versus a mere 0.49 million for the equivalent “PlayBook” by Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ/RIMM). For 2012, estimates call for the sale of 62.5 million iPads. Don’t be at all surprised to see Research In Motion (RIM) look at dumping its PlayBook, which is nice, but really not close to the iPad. RIM disappointed with third-quarter revenues and earnings per share falling short.

RIM did bounce over 14% on Wednesday on takeover speculation following a break below $20.00, its lowest level in nearly six years. Speculation is that Vodafone (London/VOD) may be looking at RIM.

While Apple is at the top, the company will need to continue to innovate going forward to brush off rivals without having Jobs around providing his extraordinary guidance and vision.

Clearly it will not be easy, but Jobs has entrenched his vision in Apple.

RIP Steve Jobs.


Apple Is Shining Bright…
RIM, Not So Much

Apple Inc. is to the technology world what Microsoft Corporation was in the 90s. The stock traded at a record $415.00 on Tuesday and, in George's view, could be heading for $500.00 within a year. The market capitalization of $382 billion makes Apple the biggest company in the world. And not only is Apple the biggest, but it also leading the technology pack with innovation and a desire to be the world’s dominant company. But what about Research In Motion? Apple Inc. is to the technology world what Microsoft Corporation was in the 90s. The stock traded at a record $415.00 on Tuesday and, in George's view, could be heading for $500.00 within a year. The market capitalization of $382 billion makes Apple the biggest company in the world. And not only is Apple the biggest, but it also leading the technology pack with innovation and a desire to be the world’s dominant company. But what about Research In Motion? Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) is to the technology world what Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT) was in the 90s. The stock traded at a record $415.00 on Tuesday and, in my view, could be heading for $500.00 within a year. The market capitalization of $382 billion makes Apple the biggest company in the world. And not only is Apple the biggest, but it also leading the technology pack with innovation and a desire to be the world’s dominant company.

If someone were to ask me, “What are the best stocks?” Apple would definitely be up there. If you had asked me a few years ago, I may have said Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ/RIMM) was one of the best. But, while the business at Research In Motion (RIM for short) is falling behind as far as vision and execution, Apple is on the cutting edge with its new products. I used to be faithful to my “BlackBerry,” but have since moved over to the “iPhone” and “iPad.”

The reality is that Apple is the “best of breed.” Just look at the iPad sales. Apple sold 9.2 million units in the second quarter, versus a mere 0.49 million for RIM’s PlayBook. For 2012, estimates call for the sale of 62.5 million iPads. Don’t be at all surprised to see RIM look at dumping its PlayBook, which is nice, but really not close to the iPad. RIM disappointed with third-quarter revenues and earnings per share falling short. BlackBerry shipments came in well below estimates. You can blame the results partly on Apple.

In the tablet market, Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE/HPQ) already axed its “TouchPad” tablet and Sharp announced last week that it was also exiting the tablet market. Sony Corporation (NYSE/SNE) is getting set to introduce its new tablet, which has received excellent reviews; but I doubt it will be enough to knock Apple off its perch. When the application developers are so focused on Apple, it will be difficult for the rivals to get a piece of the action.

While RIM is struggling in the United States, the company’s prospects may be the brightest in regions such as Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Of course, failure here could drive RIM into the ground as the stock that couldn’t beat Apple.

RIM just launched three new BlackBerry smartphones with the new “BlackBerry 7” OS. Again, the phones are facing tough competition from Apple’s iPhone and it will not be easy. The key will be the international markets.

In my view, RIM will need to get some fresh ideas and perhaps a change in leadership and direction to drive a new strategy for the company or face possible extinction. For RIM, revenue growth in fiscal 2012 is estimated to slow to 3.1%, but rebound to 9.1% in fiscal 2013. These metrics are horrible given that Apple’s revenue growth for the next two years is 66.2% and 22.8%, respectively.

So, unless RIM can stage a rebound and make its products more desirable, it may endure a slow death.

Apple also needs to continue to innovate to brush off rivals and, given that Steve Jobs will no longer be in control due to serious health issues, there are also uncertainties with the company. For the time being, I would long Apple and avoid RIM. RIM is tempting as a short candidate, but given its arsenal of patents, the company could be a takeover target.


Apple Shines, But Is Research In Motion Dead?

Apple is shining in the smartphone and tablet market; Research In Motion...not so much. Is this the end for RIM?On August 15, Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) announced that it was acquiring Motorola Mobility Holdings, Inc. (NYSE/MMI) in a $12.5-billion, or $40.00-per-share deal, representing a huge 60% price premium to the previous close.

The key to the deal was the enormous resource of patents held by Motorola, which is attractive to Google as the company tries to build up its “Android” mobile operating system. Motorola held over 17,000 granted patents and about 7,500 pending patents.

The move to acquire the patents quickly led to speculation on which company could be the next significant patent play in the stock market.

It quickly surfaced that troubled Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ/RIMM) could be the next patent play in the works. Yet, some question Research In Motion (RIM) as a target, as the company holds about 2,000 patents, well below Motorola’s holdings.

So maybe RIM will not be the target of the big patent play that Motorola’s planning on making, but the company is still worth a look. The company’s newly launched “Playbook” tablet is underselling the “iPad” by Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL), but then so is everyone else.

The scars from the tablet battle are already evident after Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE/HPQ) shocked the technology world when it announced that it would be discontinuing the sale of its “TouchPad” tablet and smart phone.

RIM has not given up on its tablet, but it will clearly be a tough go for the company to compete against the iPad. Apple’s iPad is the “best of breed.”

While RIM is struggling in the United States, the company’s prospects may be the brightest in regions such as Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Of course, failure here could drive RIM into the ground as the stock that couldn’t beat Apple.

RIM just launched three new “BlackBerry” smartphones, with the new “BlackBerry 7” operating system. Again, the phones are facing tough competition from Apple’s iPhone, and it will not be easy. The key will be the international markets.

In my view, RIM may also need to get some fresh ideas and a change in leadership from the current co-founders to drive a new strategy for the company.

The best thing about RIM is its strong operating results and attractive valuation.

RIM has reported higher annual revenues in nine straight years from fiscal 2003 to fiscal 2011. Revenues grew from $294.05 million in fiscal 2002 to $19.91 billion in fiscal 2011, which equates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 59.74%.

But there is slowing. Revenue growth in fiscal 2012 is estimated to slow to 3.10%, but rebound to 9.10% in fiscal 2013. This is a concern when you consider that Apple’s revenue growth for the next two years is 66.20% and 22.70%, respectively.

RIM will face some tough hurdles ahead.

RIMM is down 43.67% over its last 52 weeks. The chart is showing a bearish death cross with the 50-day moving average (MA) well below the 200-day MA.

All seems lost for RIM, but the company is not ready to wave the white flag.


Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate