All The Noise About Oil
Tuesday, March 23rd, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
While I’m a big believer that the price of consumer goods will decline in the short term (deflation), I also recognize that some commodities are rising in price. In particular, I’ve been very bullish on both gold and sliver, and they have both risen nicely in value over the past two to three years.
Today’s commentary is on another commodity and its rising price: Oil. Crude oil prices are trading near a 13-year high, and most analysts are predicting oil will breakout above US$40.00 per barrel this summer, if not earlier.
While I don’t pretend to be an expert in the political arena, a layperson like me would assume that the easing of tensions in Iraq and Afghanistan would keep oil prices stable, or at least keep them from rising. Apparently not.
As I understand it, oil is rising in price for these reasons:
First, OPEC (which supplies 1/3 of the world’s oil supply) plans to cut production by 4% to 23.5 million barrels a day by April 1, 2004.
Second, Demand for oil is rising in countries where capitalization and economic expansion are taking off, namely China and India. Venezuela, a major supplier of oil to the U.S., is experiencing political unrest.
Finally, inventories of both oil and gas in the U.S. are lower today than they were a year ago. Yes, this is a classic economic case of the lower the supply, the higher the price.
It’s truly amazing to see that we can travel to the moon, develop electronics that were once only imaginable, and even create drugs that a few decades ago would be considered miracles. But yet, we cannot find a cost effective alternative to gasoline. For this lack of technology focus, American consumers and businesses will pay dearly.
In fact, can you think of any other commodity the U.S. is so desperately in need of that’s in the hands of other countries? There are some, but none are as big as oil. And if our currency continues to fall in value against other world currencies, these foreign “oil rich” currencies might start asking for something else than U.S. dollars… like euros.
I’m joining the crowd on this one and agreeing with other analysts in that we’re looking at higher oil prices ahead. Maybe it’s time to sell that Hummer.
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Tags: economic analysis, oil prices, U.S. dollar
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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