Awash in Debt
Monday, September 13th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
In today’s commentary on debt, I won’t be talking about consumer or business debt. I’ll only be discussing government debt and why, I believe, the government intends to keep it out of control.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office reported last week that it projects this year’s U.S. federal deficit will reach $422 billion, just short of the $450 billion previously predicted. This will be the highest annual deficit ever. Last year saw the previous annual deficit record set at $375 billion.
This year’s projection means the U.S. federal government will spend $422 billion more than it will take in this year. At this pace, the federal government is borrowing about one out of every five dollars it spends. In the end, I believe the actual deficit number will be bigger. And please, keep in mind the $422-billion figure does not include deficits at the state or municipal levels.
The government is spending at a record dollar pace for several reasons; the most important, I believe, is to stimulate the economy. The news on the job front since the tech bubble burst, we must face, has been very poor. And it’s not looking to get any better any time soon. Just this past Tuesday, the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported planned U.S. job cuts rose 6.6% in August. We’re talking about 70,000 planned corporate job cuts in August. Of course, this will be offset by job hires, but the trend is not good.
My thinking is that the U.S. government is maybe hoping that it can create enough jobs itself to keep the overall job growth alive. This could be a good strategy if the economy itself kicks in and the private sector starts hiring again. But it could also be suicidal if the economy itself doesn’t create jobs. Government spending on defense to create domestic jobs is not the answer.
If the U.S. government continues on this path of record deficits and as the baby boomer generation continues aging and demands on Social Security and Medicare increase, there could be a debt crisis at the federal level like we’ve never seen before.
As I’ll discuss tomorrow, the only good news here is that, given the total federal debt, the government itself has a vested interest in not having interest rates rise much further.
Next Post: What to Expect Next in Interest RatesPrevious Post: Why We Should Care About UK Housing Prices
Tags: interest rates, U.S. debt crisis
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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