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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

Billions in Equity Wiped Out While Stock Market Still Holds?

Wednesday, November 21st, 2007
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

Something that might have been unbelievable in 2005 happened yesterday. The second largest mortgage company in the U.S., Freddie Mac, reported a net third quarter loss of two billion dollars. Upon the news, the stock tanked 29% — its biggest one- day gain since the company went public 20 years ago!

Along with Fannie Mae, the two mortgage companies have about 40% of the U.S. home mortgage market. And collectively the two have lost forty-one billion dollars in market value so far in 2007. This loss pales in comparison to the $400-billion Deutsche Bank is estimating the fallout from the subprime mess will eventually cost.

Back in 2005, I was writing about how the real estate bust would be bigger than the boom. As a real estate man, I’ve never seen a prosperous boom that was followed by a hurtful bust. (I’d like to see where all those analysts are today who said the bust would not be that bad. They are either hiding under a pillow or broke.)

Early in 2007, I forecast that, for the first time since the Great Depression, the median price of a home in the U.S. would fall this year. Maybe the CEO of Wells Fargo reads my column — last week he came out and said the housing rut is the worst since the Great Depression. The CEO of Fannie Mae is more pessimistic, as he sees house prices falling four percent in 2008. (They should get together with one of the Toll brothers to talk about the good old times of selling consumers homes they really couldn’t afford.)

The bottom line is simple: I predict more than one major financial institution and builder will fail because of the severity of the housing market. Freddie Mac is already below its capital requirement and needs to raise money fast.

As for the stock market, it continues along its merry way oblivious to what is happening to homebuyers’ wealth. In 1927, the real estate market crashed and the stock market, even back then, carried along its merry way for two more years until it eventually crashed. History has a way of repeating itself.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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