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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

Cold Oil

Tuesday, January 13th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

I noticed two things this morning on my way to work. The first was that it took too long for my vehicle to produce warm air; the other was a noticeable price spike at the pumps. It was just a few weeks ago (Dec. 22) that we here at PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL predicted (not a cold front… we’ll leave that up to the experts) that oil and gas would continue trending higher. Abnormally frigid weather in the U.S. Northeast has ignited heating fuel prices, so to speak. Cold weather in the Northeast, the world’s largest heating oil market, has boosted heating oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange seven percent since late December to more than 0.97 cents a gallon in Thursday trading.

New York light sweet crude was trading at $34.40 a barrel–the highest price since last March, when the imminent invasion of Iraq spooked traders to bid prices higher. U.S. Inventories are presently near critical levels. Government data this week showed crude stocks had fallen to 269 million barrels–the lowest level since 1975. And mother nature seems to have some more cold to help with demand side pricing.

Oil has found support from… take a guess, a weak U.S. dollar. OPEC has stated that a reason for sustaining high prices is the declining dollar and the fact that non-dollar investors are getting in on the act.

Oil prices rose to their highest annual average in more than twenty years in 2003. Coincidentally, the dollar sank 17% or so against the Euro during the year and seems to have sparked an across-the-board commodity rally.

To add to the whole price drive, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham stated on Friday, January 9, 2004 that the U.S. will continue to purchase oil for America’s strategic reserves despite high prices. This important revelation reminds me of the Central Bank in England announcing gold sales prior to making them. Hmm. I wonder why prices dropped so suddenly in bullion markets?

At PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, we see Abraham’s disclosure as somewhat similar. I’m sure he was just trying to set our minds at ease so “we the people” don’t worry about the nation’s strategic reserves.

But if I was long oil futures or long any producer stock I might just take advantage of that little tidbit of information. Wouldn’t you?

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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