Monday Market Blues More Than Just a Glitch
Wednesday, November 29th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
An investor would think strong overall retail sales on the day following U.S. Thanksgiving would result in a strong stock market. Not so for this market. Investors were handed a big surprise a couple of days ago when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell the most in five months on Monday, losing 1.3% of its value in a single day.
And what a bad day is was for the stock market:
—Wal-Mart said monthly sales declined for the first time in 10 years. Since the company is the world’s biggest discount retailer, this was obviously bad news for retail.
—The U.S. Dollar Index fell to a low not seen since March, 2005.
—Oil prices jumped back above $60 U.S. a barrel on report OPEC may cut production again.
While most of the financial media was focusing on one of the three stories above for the Monday meltdown, I didn’t see any story telling it simply like it is:
The Dow rose above its record high recently, bringing investors back into the market. But there is no real reason for the general stock market to rally as consumers are tightening their purse strings, housing is going from bad to worse, company earnings are slowing, the U.S. Fed has raised interest drastically, the yield curve is inverted, the economy is slowing and overvaluation exists everywhere in big-cap and blue-chip stocks.
After luring many investors back into the stock market, Monday’s tumble in stock prices was a simple bear taking investors’ money again. Note Goldman Sacks, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and other big brokerage house stocks were all down big-time on Monday. Goldman Sachs was down 4.2% and the NYSE Group (owner of the NYSE) was down 6.6%! When a broker’s stock is hit this hard you know it’s not Wal-Mart, a weak U.S. dollar, or oil that’s causing concern. No: It’s just a simple fact that stocks are overvalued and the market will continue to correct downward, putting pressure on brokers’ earnings.
Don’t let the popular media fool you: Its bear market for big-cap and blue chips-stocks. And it’s been one since 2000.
Next Post: Canada Going Nuclear…Previous Post: When Falling Energy Prices are Bad News
Tags: bear market, stock market, U.S. dollar, Wal Mart
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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