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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

More Evidence

Tuesday, July 6th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

The future direction of interest rates has been the subject of several recent PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL commentaries for a reason: Knowing the direction of interest rates is fundamental in planning for your borrowing needs and your investments.

If you have a mortgage or loan, you want to ensure that, in the long term, you pay the lowest rates possible. If you invest, you are likely aware that no other factor has such an impact on the value of investments than interest rates.

The consensus has been calling for a one-percentage point increase this year and about a two-percentage point increase next year in the Federal Funds Rate. My view has been somewhat different based on my belief that the U.S. economy is not doing as well as expected and that Greenspan will be reluctant to raise rates in a weak economy.

More evidence of weak economic activity surfaced last week, cementing my view on interest rates:

– In June 2004, only 112,000 new jobs were created in the U.S., well below the 250,000 new jobs expected by economists.

– 11,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the U.S. in June after four months of small increases.

– May 2004 U.S. employment figures were revised downward from an initial report of 248,000 new jobs to a revised figure of 235,000 new jobs. I would not be surprised to see this revised once more.

– U.S. May durable orders fell by 1.6% — a surprise to economists who had expected a 1.5% increase.

– U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year was revised down to 3.9% from 4.4%.

– U.S. June auto sales fell 2% — the worst June since 1997 despite major incentives for consumers.

Economists are calling for a Federal Funds Rate of 4% by the end of 2005, a 300% increase from the current rate of 1%. Given our weak economy, I question Greenspan taking the full action, unless inflationary pressures become unbearable.

If rates were in fact going to rise by such a degree, the stock market, which is the best leading indicator I know of, would be in a tailspin. And that’s not happening right now. I believe the stock market is telling us, yes, rates will rise, but not by that much. Seeing the Federal Funds Rate going to 2%, maybe even 3% could be a possibility, but I would question any rate increases above that unless real economic growth is delivered.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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