My Two Cents on the Employment Numbers
Tuesday, September 7th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
I couldn’t let the U.S. Department of Labor’s recently reported August employment numbers go without comment. Especially since most analysts and economists see the employment numbers as good economic news, while I see them as just the opposite.
The Labor Department reported Friday that 144,000 jobs were created in the world’s largest economy in August. The news was hailed positively by the popular media, with emphasis on August job growth being at the fastest pace in four months.
When I read between the lines, here’s what I see:
– There was a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.5%, but the decline came not because of more jobs created, but because more people left the workforce.
– Economists generally agree that a healthy U.S. economy should be generating about 250,000 or more jobs a month. Over the past four years, we’ve only been at that number a couple of times.
– Job growth is usually stronger during the summer than during the winter. The numbers going forward, I would say from November on, will not look good. Major retailers like Wal- Mart are expecting sales to come in on the downside for the remainder of the year. And weakness in the construction market could also bode poorly for U.S. employment figures.
Employment numbers tell us what happened. Companies, by gauging their daily sales activity, tell us what’s going on right now. Case in point, Intel.
Huge Intel makes chips for about 80% of the world’s computers. Last Thursday, it announced its third quarter sales would be 5% below the estimate the company made in July. Intel blamed weak demand for chips, noting customers were “working off” excess inventories. Intel is basically saying there is too much inventory, little demand, and maybe even over capacity. This all points to weaker consumer demand and poor business activity.
The reality: Five years later, our economy has still not recovered. Take out growth in the construction and housing markets, and we really never got out of the recession.
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Tags: jobs growth, recession, U.S. economy
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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