Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

On The Lighter Side

Tuesday, February 17th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

Just after the NFL Super Bowl, a sporting friend of mine called to tell me that we should be going into a bear market. “Why is that?” I asked, even though I tend to be ‘overly bearish’ and was in complete agreement with him.

He went on to explain that in the years when the Super Bowl was won by a team from the American Football League, it was a bearish sign for the stock market. But if a team from the National Football League won it was a bullish sign.

My friend added that this Super Bowl theory has been right 29 times and wrong only 8 times, which seemed to lend it some weight. (Well to me at least, but I have grown tired of gurus and economists as you well know, so perhaps I’m all too willing to clutch at the straws offered.)

Another theory recently presented to me is the ‘presidential campaign’ one. This theory is a little more straightforward. It contends that the stock market goes up in a presidential election year.

Beginning in 1832, the Dow has averaged a 10.3% rise in pre- election years and a 7.1% rise in the actual election year. The year after? A 1.8% rise and midway through the four-year term, a 4.2% increase.

So, election years tend to be good for the market. Some say that this is due to the fact that the administration that wishes to get re-elected tends to toss around some economic incentives for the voting public (like tax cuts). The incentives are reflected in the markets.

An interesting theory. And, in fact, the markets were up considerably more than 10% last year – and up in the two months of the actual election year.

At PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, we are suspect of any ‘fortune telling theories’. We like to take it one economy at a time, so to speak. Or is that one candidate at a time? Oh well…

If truth be told, yes, the markets are up for the year, but bear in mind it is only the middle of February. And yes, a team from the American Football League, the New England Patriots, won the super bowl…which is bearish. Hmm.

There you have it. Two indicators absolutely opposed to one another. The election is bullish and the other, the Super Bowl outcome, bearish. Which is it? To what theory should we ascribe?

It appears that both are right. The market has its strong bull supporters and its strong bear supporters this year. Here at PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, we will stay away from theories and call it as we see it…a lot of sideways action. A tug of war, if you will.

Next Post:
Previous Post:

Tags: , ,


Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"

Enter e-mail:

We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.


 

Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








No Comments »

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Leave a comment

*

Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate