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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

Still for Sale and Even Cheaper

Monday, June 28th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

You may recall a PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL commentary last month in which I wrote about the Toronto real estate market. In specific, I was in downtown Toronto last month and called a couple of real estate agents to see some for-sale condos. I wanted to see first-hand how the much-talked-about Toronto condo market was faring.

My findings: The condo market was cooling quickly, with sellers willing to take a 10% to 15% loss from what they had paid one to two years ago. My prediction at the time: Prices would ease even more.

I remember the real estate agents telling me, “Don’t put in too low of an offer… They don’t need to sell.” One agent even called me a couple of days later to tell me an offer was coming in on one of the units and that I’d better move quickly.

What’s the status with units today? Each of the units I saw is still for sale, extending the important “number of days on the market” indicator even more. In two cases, prices have been reduced, and still no takers.

What was once a very hot market has cooled considerably — but you don’t read about it much in the newspapers. Agents used to have buyers lined up to make offers; now they are calling me looking for an offer.

Only thirty days ago, these real estate agents were telling me this specific market was less vibrant than it used to be, but still a very active market. Now they’re telling me units are just taking a “little longer” to move. One industry insider just told me a major player in this market shelved plans for one of two new planned high-rise residential buildings, and that sales at the building that will go ahead are very slow.

The weak real estate market is not confined to the Toronto condo market either. I get e-mails from readers daily telling me the property market in their areas has slowed down considerably too. From what I can tell from these e-mails, it’s the high-end home market where real estate is now moving slower and slower.

The stocks of all the major high-end builders tell the story. WCI Communities and Toll Brothers, both billion-dollar high- end home builders listed on the NYSE, find their stocks off at least 10% from their March highs. And in respect to both stock price charts, a classical head-and-shoulders pattern is easily visible.

I see the stocks prices of the major home builders falling even lower. And unless there were a special situation, I wouldn’t be a buyer in the real estate market today. My humble opinion is that we are going to soon find out that even a slight hike in interest rates will have a profound effect on consumers’ thoughts about moving-on-up.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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