Tanking
Monday, July 19th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Ever hear about a company that reported a 96% increase in quarterly earnings, but whose stock dropped 10% in value on the news?
Well, that’s exactly what happened last week with Intel. The world’s biggest computer chip maker reported last Tuesday that its second-quarter profit nearly doubled.
Did Intel’s stock price tank because analysts were expecting higher earnings? No. The general expectations amongst analysts were for a profit of $0.27 a share and Intel hit that number right on. Aside from lowering its gross margin outlook for the remainder of 2004 to 60% from 62% and slightly higher inventory levels, there was really no “bad” news from the company.
The problems for Intel really started earlier in the week when Merrill Lynch downgraded its opinion on semiconductor companies, including Intel. Then, following Intel’s earnings news, Prudential Securities cut its rating on the stock to neutral from overweight. Morgan Stanley too was quick to change its rating on the stock to equal weight from overweight.
Why Intel stock got hit so hard on “good” earnings, we will never know. I’ve been in this business all my life. And if there is one thing I have learned through the years, it is that the market responds to news for its own reasons… reasons that we may never understand and reasons we may only understand months after the fact.
The bottom line lies in a very nervous stock market where there are few buyers and few sellers, as the light trading volume indicates. Intel has been an immensely positive stock market story. And the stock market loves growth. Now that Intel may be maturing (as evidenced by declining margins and rising inventories), the market could be taking a “wait-and-see” attitude.
I could go on hypothesizing all day. But the reality is, the market tanked Intel because it simply doesn’t like what it sees ahead for Intel and the others… and soon we’ll find out what exactly the market didn’t like. Remember, the stock market is a leading indicator, not a lagging one. We need to listen to what it’s telling us in terms of stock price action.
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Tags: corporate earnings, stock market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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