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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

The First Leg Falls, So They Think

Thursday, July 1st, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

By the time you are reading today’s PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, the news of the Fed’s rate increase will already be old news. In fact, it was likely the most anticipated Fed rate move in recent memory.

So the first leg has dropped, or has it?

Many market watchers are predicting continued higher rates. TD Bank economists, who are usually very conservative, expect the Fed to raise rates by another three-quarter percentage points this year and another full two percentage points in 2005.

Hence, the bank is predicting that the Fed’s key interest rate, by the end of 2005, will be 4% compared to only 1% just a few days ago.

Well here’s what I think: If interest rates do rise at the pace TD Bank economists and many other analysts are predicting, the housing bubble will burst big-time, stocks will crash, and the economy will go into a tailspin. That’s why I don’t expect rates to move up all that much.

Debt-service ratios are at record highs. Thus, interest rate hikes in the months ahead will pack a much bigger punch for consumers than they would have just a few years ago. Greenspan is in a tight spot.

The Fed Chairman does not want the embarrassment of having to lower rates once he raises them, but that is exactly what Greenspan will have to do if higher interest rates have too much of a negative psychological impact on consumers.

In keeping interest rates at a 46-year low, Greenspan has done a great job in keeping deflation out of this economic cycle. While the Fed won’t talk about it, my readers are well aware of my concern for deflation. By keeping rates low and consumers spending, especially on housing, Greenspan has fought the fight against deflation quite well.

But in doing so, Greenspan has also created a few bubbles, namely real estate and debt bubbles-and they won’t be a pretty sight when they finally burst.

In keeping rates so unusually low, Greenspan has also managed to fend off the natural forces of a bear market in stocks. Unfortunately, the Fed Chairman has placed us in a very awkward position: Raise rates too much and the stock and real estate markets will come down. Keep interest rates at their 46- year low and consumers will borrow themselves into oblivion, creating even bigger bubbles.

He’s damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t. And that’s why I expect Greenspan to do a lot less in terms of higher rates than most economists and analysts are predicting.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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