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Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

The Flight to Dollars

Tuesday, May 11th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

After declining against world currencies during 2003 and the first few months of 2004, the U.S. dollar has taken flight. Why has the Greenback started rising in value and how will this play out for investors?

The rise in the value of the U.S. dollar in the past couple of months against the euro and Canadian and Australian dollars is simple to explain.

In mid-March of this year, the huge U.S. bond market started to signal rising interest rates ahead. So what does the smart money do? It exits the bond market because the smart money is worried bonds will fall lower (and it was right!). So where do the exiting bond investors put their money? Not in the stock market, that’s for sure.

The bond investors moved out of the bond market and into immediate term cash investments, such as 30-day T-bills and CDs. This has caused a demand for U.S. dollars, and, like everything, where there is demand, prices will rise.

Similarly, the smart money is out of big-cap stocks. As I read the market, these big volume days on downside action is known among technicians as “distribution”–or the smart money getting out. So where do the exiting stock market investors put their money? Not in the bond market, because these investors are expecting higher rates ahead, which means lower prices for bonds. These investors are going for immediate-term cash investments like 30-day T-bills and CDs, again causing a demand for U.S. dollars.

And finally, there is the perception that U.S. interest rates will rise, giving foreign investors good returns if they hold American dollars.

However, I see this only as an immediate-term phenomenon. While the U.S. dollar could actually move higher here and rally, as more bond and stock investors exit their respective markets, in the long-term, it will be the ballooning U.S. combined government, business, and consumer debt that will again drag the dollar down.

As long-term interest rates rise, Greenspan will have no choice but to flood the system with credit to keep the economy from contracting. The proverbial “printing press” will need to flow “big-time” again, creating too many dollars in the system and bringing the value of the U.S. dollar down. At that point, too many dollars will result in lower prices once more.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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