To Buy, or Not to Buy
Saturday, July 31st, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
One of the most frequent questions I receive about an individual stock: “Michael, is Microsoft stock a bargain?”
Why do I here this repeated question? Probably because investors are looking at Microsoft and seeing a stock that could be bought today for about half the $60 it sold for five years ago.
The bullish Microsoft investors see Microsoft selling at a lower price/earnings multiple than most big software companies. Investors also like Microsoft because it expenses its stock options, while most software companies still do not follow this practice. And it’s the cash— the company generates a huge $3 billion in cash a quarter.
The bearish camp doesn’t like the competition from Linux for Microsoft’s Windows operating system and weak performance by Microsoft’s Xbox game console.
And having finally been fed up with a poor track record in respect to investing it cash, Microsoft announced on July 20th that it would spend $30 billion over the next four years to buyback Microsoft stock while spending another $30 billion on a one-time special dividend of $3 a share.
As you’ve probably guessed, I’m in the bearish camp when it comes to Microsoft stock for the following reasons:
— I like growth stocks. And Microsoft is anything but a growth stock. The company’s revenue has increased by only an average of 12% per year over the past three years.
— The company is expecting sales in the current fiscal year to actually fall 3.4%. To make more money, the company will have to continue slashing expenses.
— Is Microsoft worth $30 billion? That’s the important question. I’ve always looked at Microsoft as a one-hit-wonder company. Take away the Windows operating system and Microsoft has nothing. The company has been beat at the Internet game by many other successful companies.
— Buying back stock and declaring such a huge special one time dividend, in my humble opinion, will only help to make Bill Gates even richer.
Someone once said that companies that do not have to go public, because they generate so much cash, only go public to make their shareholders even richer. To me, this is Microsoft, case in point.
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Tags: economic analysis, stock market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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