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Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

U.S. Dollar Predictions

Tuesday, June 15th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

My loyal readers are aware of my general negative position on the U.S. dollar. In a nutshell, I believe higher interest rates will eventually make it difficult for U.S. governments to satisfy their debts, causing foreign U.S. bond creditors to eventually shy away from U.S. dollars.

With the U.S. dollar the official “reserve” of about 70% of world currencies, a lack of confidence in the U.S. dollar could result in a “run away” from the currency.

In time, the remainder of the world will come to question the value of a currency issued on printing presses from a Federal Government saddled with debt it may find difficult to satisfy under a higher interest rate environment. Raise taxes to pay off government debt? And cut off the spending of the U.S. consumer… I don’t think so.

The economic and emotional factors I’m speaking about above will take time to filter through world economies, especially if gold stays below the $500 an ounce level.

But in the immediate term, I expect to see a “run to” U.S. dollars for the following reasons:

– Bonds just continue to get hammered. Yesterday, they were down big-time. Investors are fleeing the bond market because they are concerned higher interest rates will push bond prices lower.

– Big-cap stocks just can’t get going. If you look at the past few months of trading, you will quickly note the DOW is in a trading pattern. The indicators I follow show there is no urgency to sell stocks, but light volume indicates no big hurry to buy either. With higher rates set to put a damper on corporate earnings, I believe investors are more likely to leave the stock market than get into stocks.

Will the exiting bond investors buy stocks? No. Will the exiting stock buyers buy bonds? No. And both “nos” are for the same reason — higher interest rates will push both markets down.

So where is the money running to? The money is going to short-term U.S. dollar instruments, like T-bills and CDs. And until the interest rate fears are fully discounted by the market, we could see cash just sitting in short-term U.S. securities. Right now, half of the analysts I follow expect the Fed to raise rates a quarter-point at its next meeting, the other half expects a half-point increase. The futures market tells me a full- percentage-point increase in rates is already built-in.

What does a higher immediate-term U.S. dollar mean for you? If you are American, and plan to travel this summer, you may find your money will go further in foreign countries than it has in the recent past. If you’re looking to diversify outside U.S. dollars because you have the same long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar that I have, and you want to hedge against the eventual demise of the U.S. dollar, this summer may also be a good time to get into foreign currencies while the American dollar is strong. I’ll keep you posted.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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