What Barney Says Now
Thursday, June 3rd, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Tobias Levkovich, chief equity market strategist at Smith Barney, thinks stocks are headed down big-time this summer.
This analyst with Smith Barney (often referred to as just “Barney” in the brokerage community) is one of only a handful of so called “strategists” I know of that are so bearish on stocks. In the case of Levkovich, it’s interesting because he has a high profile in investment circles.
Here are Levkovich’s arguments:
– Rising interest rates in the U.S. will cause price/earnings multiples to go down as future company earnings become difficult to predict with rising interest rates.
– Many analysts are raising company earnings expectations, while Levkovich sees a 95% chance of the revision momentum slipping.
– His investor sentiment model suggests an 80% chance the S&P 500 will fall below 1,000 from its current 1,121 in the next few months.
– The investors Levkovich talks to are more interested in buying on dips as opposed to selling their equities. He believes the market will work against the current positive investor sentiment.
Only a few short years ago, it would be rare to find an analyst telling investors to bail from the market, especially when the analyst’s income is dependent on the commissions and financing fees his or her employer makes from investors buying stocks. I give credit to Levkovich for telling it as he sees it… I give more credit to Barney for letting Levkovich call it as he sees it.
The opinions of Levkovich and the handful of other strategists that are so bearish are very much worth noting. There are many mixed signals coming from the economy. Historically high oil prices could be with us for a while. Rapidly rising oil and home prices are inflationary, but the Fed is expanding the money supply as if it wasn’t worried about deflation. The bond market is telling us interest rates will rise from their 46- year low. And the sea of debt for consumers and government continues to grow.
Among my contemporaries, it’s common to see half-million- dollar mortgages for homes and second homes. Am I and the handful of bearish analysts out there the only ones concerned about the economic issues noted above? Are we being ultra conservative by not joining the ranks of the “spend, spend, spenders?” Time will tell.
Next Post: Sick of Insiders Getting Rich at Your Expense?Previous Post: Pondering Interest Rates
Tags: interest rates, S&P 500
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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