What Greenspan’s Man Said
Monday, April 12th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
The following are not my words, but recent statements from Roger Ferguson, vice-chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the much-touted eventual replacement of Alan Greenspan:
“Clearly, some households have become burdened with excessive debt and may have considerable financial stress should their income become disrupted.”
“One cannot definitely rule out of the possibility that hiring will fall short of expectations over the next several months,” said Ferguson, noting many of the layoffs might be permanent.
Now why would a key Fed member say such things? Whatever the reason, it was enough for a Washington Bureau Chief to release an article this past weekend entitled “U.S. Job Growth May Be Blip.”
Peter Morton made some very positive conclusions:
— Three times as many jobs were created in March than were expected;
— Initial jobless claims came in last week at their lowest level since January 12, 2001; and
— Optimism of U.S. manufacturing executives about the prospects for the next six months reached a recent record in the first quarter.
These three positive economic facts do not fit with the Fed vice- chairman’s remarks. But here is my simple, layman’s observation:
As I scan the newspapers each day (my readings include the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Globe and Mail, National Post, Financial Times, among others) and peruse company press releases, why is it that I only see companies announcing job layoffs and I do not see companies hiring?
I read about ABC Company firing 3,000 people here and DEF Company laying off 5,000 people there, but I do not read about companies hiring big like they did before the bear stock market, which started in 2000. Remember 1998 and 1999, when Nortel, JDS, World Com, Enron, and many Internet companies were hiring thousands? Those days have not returned.
So we don’t have any big hiring binges, but we do have great job growth in March, some good economic news coming out, and a Federal Reserve officer telling us not to have big job growth expectations over the next several months. All told, sound like conflicting information, but then maybe the Fed knows something we don’t.
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Tags: economic news, job creation, jobs growth
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on TwitterTweet
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