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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 17, 2012

What Nobody is Talking About

Thursday, August 19th, 2004
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

While economists had been expecting U.S. inflation to climb by 0.2% in July, the U.S. Department of Labor said Tuesday that inflation fell by 0.1% in July — the first monthly decline since late 2003.

The decline in inflation for July was blamed on lower gasoline prices and lower prices for clothing, recreation, and education costs. Even if we take out the volatile gas prices, the core inflation rate was flat.

No matter where I look for news and analysis on the inflation figures, I’ve only found positive responses in the popular media. Most reports were on how “inflation was under control” in the U.S.

But what I didn’t see anyone talking about was the deflation implication of the Consumer Price Index (more popularly known as the CPI). Am I the only one worried about deflation? Seems so. But wait, I’m sure Alan Greenspan has the dreaded fear of deflation in the back of his mind too. And I’m sure he hopes no one is talking about it.

Prices are falling because consumers are accessing cheaper goods via imports. Our trade numbers tell us flat-out that American consumers are buying imported manufactured goods at record levels.

The stock market is deflating. Really, any good service or investment that is declining in price is deflational. The million- dollar question: What will happen when real estate starts to deflate?

Japan experienced deflation for many years, and it certainly wasn’t pleasant. That’s because assets decline in value while debt increases.

Take the couple that buys a house for $250,000 with $25,000 down. Their mortgage is $225,000, and they hope to see their house rise in value 5% to 10% a year so their asset is growing in value while their debt is constant. Imagine their state of mind if the house falls in price 5% to 10% — their asset is declining in value while their debt remains constant. History has shown us consumer spending comes to a screeching halt during deflationary times.

When deflation took hold in Japan, interest rates plummeted as the Bank of Japan tried to get consumers to spend again in the hope higher demand for goods would bring back inflation and rising asset prices. We all know it took years for Japan to come out of deflation. And we also know our bond market pricing is now indicative of easing interest rate hikes by the Fed. I believe the market is actually building deflation into the price of bonds. Not a comfortable thought.

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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter








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