A Leaner Turkey

Here’s what I said last U.S. Thanksgiving about the stock market:

“This year (2007), it’s a different type of Thanksgiving for investors. The turkey will be leaner. For the first time in five years, we are celebrating Thanksgiving with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at about the same level at which it traded (a year earlier) in November 2006.”

This U.S. Thanksgiving (2008) is the second time in seven years that Americans will celebrate the big day with the Dow Jones at or below its previous Thanksgiving level. In fact, today the Dow Jones is trading at the same level it did on Thanksgiving Day 2002.

 Could we possibly see a lower level for the stock market on Thanksgiving Day 2009 than we have today? It’s a chilling thought. I mean, how lean can that turkey get?

 My assumption is that many people that work in the financial services industry are really looking forward to the U.S. Thanksgiving long weekend. After the stock market took such a beating in 2008, the last four trading sessions have given stocks quite the pop.

 And while every junior market analyst out there is hoping that we’ve turned the corner and that the worst is behind us for the stock market, I suggest a copy of John Kenneth Galbraith’s “The Great Crash of 1929” as a great read for this long weekend. While we should enjoy the rally stocks are experiencing from their oversold level, my concern centers around what I believe is a classic bear market “trap rally” developing today…just like it did after the 1929 crash.

Here’s Lombardi editor Robert Appel on who was the winner during the bust:

“On CNBC this morning, it was announced that the bottom is not in yet and we are going lower in search for the bottom. The 2002 low will almost certainly provide support, but we are not quite there yet either. Close! By the time the dust settles, the “average” middle-class individual who had taken the time and trouble to build a retirement fund will have lost 50% of his retirement – on paper. Those that did not invest in equities but kept cash in the bank are faced with the lowest rates in some 30 years. Those below the middle class, who never save and simply borrow/spend, seem to be having the last laugh because they did not lose money in equities and moreover have access to low rates.”