Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Blue Chips

A company that is well-known and that has been established over a number of years is considered a blue-chip stock. They have been through the boom times and recessions, giving investors confidence that they will remain a viable entity in the future. Blue-chips are usually less volatile than other stocks, as they have a steadier stream of predictable income and usually have extensive ownership by institutions, which can hold shares for a longer period of time than individual investors. Blue-chips are usually the market leader in their respective sectors.

Why It’s Time to Cull Your Stocks

By for Profit Confidential

Still Buying Stocks StopGood numbers are one thing, but stocks did go up in advance of what’s turning out to be a fairly decent earnings season.

It’s not unreasonable at all to expect the market to take a solid break, perhaps for the next two to three months. Of course, predicting corrections and/or consolidations among stocks is a difficult endeavor in an era of extreme monetary stimulus. The Federal Reserve is slowly chipping it away, but it remains very committed to helping capital markets, especially as the economic data continues to be pretty soft.

Stocks are still looking stretched and this market is tired. A 10% to 20% correction would be a healthy development for the longer-run trend. Stocks need a catalyst for this to happen. It could come out of nowhere, and I’m reluctant to be a buyer with so many positions trading at record-highs.

Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI), a large U.S. auto parts manufacturer, had a modestly positive third fiscal quarter with sales growing three percent to $10.8 billion due to more sales in China.

The company had some one-time restructuring charges during the quarter. Earnings per share from continuing operations (excluding restructuring and one-time items) grew a hefty 17% to $0.84. Management confirmed its full-year guidance, which pleased the Street, but the position is breaking down a bit.

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company’s (DD) numbers were uninspiring and the company tried to keep investors interested with a four-percent increase to its quarterly dividend. The position’s starting to roll over and with agriculture being such an important part of the company’s business, changing preferences among farmers hurt its … Read More

The Big News on 2Q14 Earnings Season So Far

By for Profit Confidential

My Two New Favorite Stocks This Earnings SeasonThe numbers are in from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and they’re good. The position sold off on the news, which is no big surprise considering how well it’s done since the beginning of the year.

Johnson & Johnson is still mostly a pharmaceutical play, but it won’t likely be able to produce the same growth results it experienced from its hepatitis C drug in its most recent quarter.

The company adjusted its earnings-per-share guidance slightly higher and lowered its full-year sales guidance also just slightly.

The second quarter saw the company produce sales growth of nine percent to approximately $19.5 billion and adjusted earnings growth (excluding one-time items) of about 12% to $1.66 a share, which handily beat Wall Street consensus. (See “Why This Institutional Favorite Tops My List of Stocks.”)

While I do think that second-quarter earnings from blue chips will be pretty decent, it’s not unreasonable at all for these positions to sell off on the news. Stocks have come a long way, even just since the beginning of this year.

The stock market needs a break, or at the very least, another material price consolidation. It would be a healthy development for the long-run trend.

Another company that just reported a decent second quarter was CSX Corporation (CSX), which is the biggest railroad in the eastern U.S. market.

Management cited broad-based economic momentum in its rail freight business. The company’s numbers basically met consensus with second-quarter sales growth of 6.5% to $3.24 billion and earnings of $529 million, or $0.53 per share, up a penny from consensus.

The company plans to increase its capital spending … Read More

The Stocks That Will Be the Highlight of 2Q14

By for Profit Confidential

Which Companies to Look to This Earnings SeasonEarnings season is always a great time of year to get up to speed on what corporations are saying about business conditions. The numbers are also useful in the sense that you can garner a lot of market intelligence regarding specific industries. And even if you aren’t interested in a specific company, brand-name earnings (or at least a summary of the numbers) can help hone your market view.

But it’s not just about how capital markets interpret corporate results. While earnings are managed, investors need to know if there is genuine sales growth taking place and in which market.

One trend that’s been evident for a number of quarters now is that many companies have been able to modestly increase their prices without materially affecting demand.

During the first-quarter earnings season, many corporations said that their operations in Europe were experiencing renewed vigor. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues this earnings season. Many times, quarterly results reflect one-time events or short spurts in either industrial or consumer demand that aren’t indicative of a new trend you can bet on.

Earnings reports are simply press releases in which companies put their best spin on what’s transpired during the quarter. The real news is the numbers themselves, and a company’s income statement and balance sheets are where I begin to look.

Also invaluable are U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, especially the Form 10-Q, which is a much more informative document. The numbers can still be unaudited in the quarterly filings, but not the Form 10-Q, which is a detailed annual report that requires fully audited numbers…. Read More

Simple Wealth-Creating Strategy for Long-Term Investors

By for Profit Confidential

Compounding Strategy Every Investor Should ConsiderAs a strong believer in the wealth-creating effects of large-cap, dividend paying stocks, I’m also an advocate of dividend reinvestment, which is the purchasing of a company’s shares using the cash dividends paid.

This can be done commission-free from your broker and/or through the company itself if it offers such a program.

Dividend reinvestment is a powerful wealth creator if you do not require the income paid out by a corporation. It is a great way to invest and to grow your money over the long-term.

As the timespan increases, the percentage return produced by the S&P 500 becomes weighted to dividends. It’s kind of old school, but the numbers add up. Even over a few short years of good broader market performance, total investment returns can increase substantially over simple capital gains.

For example, if you bought shares in Intel Corporation (INTC) at the beginning of 2010, that stock would have produced a capital gain to date of approximately 50%.

But if you reinvested the dividends paid by Intel into new shares each quarter, your total investment return, including dividends and new shares, jumps to approximately 75%, which is a very big difference!

In the utility sector, Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) increased on the stock market about 30% over the last three years. But by reinvesting the company’s dividends into new shares during that same time period, your total return could have climbed to around 49%. Again, this is a material improvement.

Of course, dividend reinvestment excludes the potential returns to be had with the income being applied to other potential assets.

But the process is so easy, and … Read More

Why This Institutional Favorite Tops My List of Stocks

By for Profit Confidential

Why This Company Is One Great Long-Term PlayOne of my favorite companies for long-term, income-seeking investors is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

While pharmaceuticals are the company’s anchor, its other business lines help with cash flow and dividend increases.

Investors have bid Johnson & Johnson shares tremendously in recent years, and it’s difficult to consider buying the company now, as the position is up another 10 points since March.

But Johnson & Johnson is the kind of stock income-seeking investors should keep an eye on for more attractive entry points, even though they may not come around all that often. The most recent possible entry points were in late September of last year and late January of this year.

My expectations for a mature company like this is for total annual sales to grow by the mid-single digits, with earnings growth and dividends producing an approximate 10% total annual return.

With a 10% annual return on investment, your money doubles every seven years.

Johnson & Johnson is typically priced at a slight premium to the S&P 500, but the company has earned its higher valuation by providing relatively consistent growth, reliable corporate outlooks, and a strong track record of dividend increases.

The company’s stock chart is featured below:

Johnson & Johnson Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Johnson & Johnson has typically been a good performer over the long term, but just like any large-cap, it can sit and produce no capital gains for long periods of time.

The position broke out at the beginning of 2013 after a number of years of modest capital gains. Institutional investors, wanting the earnings safety and solid dividends that the company provided, bid the stock … Read More

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The Great Crash of 2014

A stock market crash bigger than what happened in 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.

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