Lombardi Publishing Corporation was established in 1986 as an investment newsletter providing stock market analysis to its readers. Today, we publish 26 paid-for investment letters, most of which provide stock market direction and individual stock picking analysis.
Profit Confidential is our free daily e-letter that goes to all our Lombardi Financial customers and to any investor who wishes to opt-in to receive it. Written by Lombardi Financial editors who have been offering stock market guidance to Lombardi customers for years, Profit Confidential provides a macro-picture on where the stock market is headed.
We start by determining if we are in a bear market or a bull market; based on that analysis, we look at what sectors are hot and what sectors to avoid.
Profit Confidential famously warned its readers to bail from stocks in 2007 (the bull market was over, and a bear market was setting in), telling investors to jump back into the stock market in March of 2009 (a bear market rally began).
Michael Lombardi was one of the first to predict the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. On March 22, 2007, he warned, “Over the past few weeks, I’ve written about subprime lenders, and how their demise will hurt the U.S. housing market, the economy, and the stock market. There’s no escaping the carnage headed our way because the housing market and subprime business are falling apart. The worst of our problems, because of the easy money made available to borrowers, which fuelled the housing boom that peaked in 2005, has yet to arrive.”
At the same time Michael wrote that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said, “The worst is over for the U.S. housing market, and there will be no economic spillover effects from the poor housing market.”
Michael also warned his readers, in advance, of the crash in the stock market in 2008. On November 29, 2007, Michael Lombardi predicted, “The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market reality of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for America.”
The Dow Jones peaked at 14,279 in October 2007. A “sucker’s rally” developed in November 2007, which Michael quickly classified as a bear trap for his readers. One year later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,726.
Profit Confidential turned bullish on stocks in March 2009 and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009.
Income-starved investors are helping prop up the long-in-the-tooth bull market (up 220% since 2009) on the S&P 500. How else can you explain the support the S&P 500 has found in the face of a really mediocre earnings season? The only way is if investors think it’s a good thing that more than half of S&P 500 companies are reporting. Read More
With the Federal Reserve waiting to change the interest rate cycle, the saving grace for the stock market is that the central bank will only do so if the economic and inflationary data is strong enough.Last year, investor sentiment reacted positively to the potential for changes in monetary policy. If economic growth was improving,. Read More
A lot of economic news has been coming in softer of late and it’s affecting the stock market. That is to say that the data are often just slightly below existing Wall Street consensus.Stocks have been churning all year and the market’s lack of direction is a result of all the usual suspects: the Federal Reserve, oil prices, global economic. Read More
Going back to the lackluster corporate earnings from early reporters that I talked about in my last article, today, I’m taking a closer look at NIKE, Inc. (NKE), which appears to be outperforming the market so far in 2015.Current Economic and Stock Market ActionIn the fourth quarter of 2014, corporate earnings didn’t particularly. Read More
With the broader stock market gyrating based on expectations of the Federal Reserve’s possible interest rate increase, the NASDAQ Biotechnology index and Russell 2000 are still holding up near their highs. A closer look at the current market dynamics suggests rising interest rates won’t be the cause of a stock market collapse.. Read More