Lombardi Publishing Corporation was established in 1986 as an investment newsletter providing stock market analysis to its readers. Today, we publish 26 paid-for investment letters, most of which provide stock market direction and individual stock picking analysis.
Profit Confidential is our free daily e-letter that goes to all our Lombardi Financial customers and to any investor who wishes to opt-in to receive it. Written by Lombardi Financial editors who have been offering stock market guidance to Lombardi customers for years, Profit Confidential provides a macro-picture on where the stock market is headed.
We start by determining if we are in a bear market or a bull market; based on that analysis, we look at what sectors are hot and what sectors to avoid.
Profit Confidential famously warned its readers to bail from stocks in 2007 (the bull market was over, and a bear market was setting in), telling investors to jump back into the stock market in March of 2009 (a bear market rally began).
Michael Lombardi was one of the first to predict the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. On March 22, 2007, he warned, “Over the past few weeks, I’ve written about subprime lenders, and how their demise will hurt the U.S. housing market, the economy, and the stock market. There’s no escaping the carnage headed our way because the housing market and subprime business are falling apart. The worst of our problems, because of the easy money made available to borrowers, which fuelled the housing boom that peaked in 2005, has yet to arrive.”
At the same time Michael wrote that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said, “The worst is over for the U.S. housing market, and there will be no economic spillover effects from the poor housing market.”
Michael also warned his readers, in advance, of the crash in the stock market in 2008. On November 29, 2007, Michael Lombardi predicted, “The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market reality of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for America.”
The Dow Jones peaked at 14,279 in October 2007. A “sucker’s rally” developed in November 2007, which Michael quickly classified as a bear trap for his readers. One year later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,726.
Profit Confidential turned bullish on stocks in March 2009 and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009 to 12,876 on May 2, 2011, a gain of 99%.
The two-year bull market rally is coming to an end. The start of a bear market doesn’t mean investors should run to the sidelines. In fact, the bear market will present investors with an unprecedented opportunity.
In 2013, Michael predicts that the devaluation of the U.S. dollar that started in early 2009 will accelerate as the U.S. economy deteriorates, that gold prices will continue to rise, and that the euro is done. Michael also predicts that inflation will be a big, big problem for the U.S.; probably for the rest of the decade. Finally, Michael believes that 2013 will be a poor year for stocks.
That doesn’t mean it will be a bad year for all stocks. Even in the deepest bear market, there are always some stocks going against the grain. Michael has ways investors can protect their holdings and even make money off the weak economy.
This market is definitely looking tired after such a strong run since mid-October.
The performance of transportation stocks has been noticeable this year. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has actually outperformed the NASDAQ Composite year-to-date. In my mind, when there’s leadership from this group, it’s a compelling, traditional bull market indicator. Countless component companies are pushing record highs.
Equally as impressive is the performance of the Russell 2000 index, which has pretty much mimicked the NASDAQ Composite over the last two years.
A divergence became apparent in the beginning of July, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average began underperforming the other indices. It’s as if investors upped their risk tolerance, willing to bet on more risky equity assets as they felt more comfortable being bullish on a stock market that’s already gone up.
Over the last 12 months, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has been the leading index (excluding biotechnology stocks, which aren’t comparable). While outperforming the Russell 2000 by a slim margin and the Dow Jones Industrial quite significantly, I think the Dow Jones Transportation Average remains the leading index going into 2014 and a great indicator for the broader market.
Among the railroad stocks that are included in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) bounced back nicely higher over the last five weeks after experiencing a lasting price consolidation the past six months. It will be interesting to see if the stock can hold above its all-time record-high of $165.18. Doing so will be meaningful.
CSX Corporation (CSX) is also a component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, and it, too, seems to have broken … Read More
It’s an amazing performance that few people predicted at the beginning of the year—this stock market might just keep on climbing right into the New Year.
Just recently we looked at Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) as it broke a new all-time record high of $77.00 a share. Now, the position has surpassed $80.00 a share, still boasting a 2.4% dividend yield. It was $60.00 a share in January.
The stock market should have experienced a major correction this year, but it consolidated during the summer and reaccelerated instead.
The huge price movements of so many large and mature enterprises are not unusual in the historical performance of the stock market. In the middle of 1998, ADP was $30.00 a share (split adjusted). Two years later, the position hit a new, all-time record-high around $60.00 before correcting with technology stocks.
ADP and so many other positions illustrate the power that monetary policy has on the stock market’s business cycle. Clearly, equities today are overbought, but institutional investors have to be buyers, because investors don’t pay fees to have money sitting in cash.
While I feel that the stock market can close this year out strongly, generally speaking, I am not enthusiastic about investors buying this market. The fundamentals are slowly coming together to support the case for rising equity prices, but all the good news in terms of balance sheets and earnings outlooks are already priced into this market. Anything can happen going forward, but expectations for investment returns have to be extremely low if one is buying a stock market that’s already gone up.
A profound and prolonged correction … Read More
As evidence of the fervor to which institutional investors are bidding this market, Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) jumped five percent on the day the company announced a new $3.65-billion share buyback program and a 16% increase to its dividends.
These are good times for corporations and equity investors. Companies can borrow on the cheap, and they are keeping shareholders happy with rising dividends and share buybacks.
Johnson Controls is based in Milwaukee and sells a great deal of equipment to the automobile and the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) industries.
The company’s dividends have been rising consistently, and for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, earnings per share grew an impressive 32%.
Not surprisingly, the stock’s been doing extremely well. At the beginning of the year, it was trading around $31.00 a share; now, it’s around $50.00.
This kind of capital gain has been very common among countless blue chips. It is a highly unusual and monetary policy-fueled rise. In my view, in the case of Johnson Controls, the company’s share price is overvalued, even with the recent news regarding its dividends.
While there is certainly a lot of liquidity in the stock market now—and there is good action to be had, generally speaking—I’m very reticent to be a buyer. At the very least, it is difficult finding attractive stocks to buy that haven’t already gone up tremendously.
I view equities as one big hold right now, and I do think that share prices will be able to finish out the year strongly, given current information.
Looking at the financial results of countless large-cap corporations, there is … Read More
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