Welcome to Profit Confidential • Monday, May 21, 2012 Archive for the ‘chinese economy’ Category
China is rapidly become one of the top travel markets in the world for both domestic and international travelers. To deal with the increased travel, China has been steadily building its road, rail, and air infrastructure that will make travelling in this country much easier.
“China is the most attractive place in the world right now for hotels. That’s why investment capital is racing there and why the major international brands are racing there too,” said Patrick Ford, president of U.S.-based Lodging Econometrics, in an article on time.com. China is the fourth top destination for tourism, but is expected to become the number one destination by 2020, according to the World Tourism Association. The country is predicted to see major growth in its domestic travel from 2011 to 2013, according to a research report, China Tourism Industry Forecast to 2012, by traveldailynews.com. China’s growth and travel industry are driven by a population of over 1.3 billion people and a steadily increasing middle class with money to spend on travel. As wages increase, so will the spending on non-essential items such as travel and recreation. There is also a rising wave of foreign travelers that have made Asia and China premier travel destinations. To handle the expected increase in travel, there is a push to build more hotels and motels across the vast country. In the Chinese travel and hotel area, there are numerous operators that have excellent potential for the aggressive investor looking for growth areas. Some of my favorite Chinese travel stocks include China Lodging Group, Limited (NASDAQ/HTHT), Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. (NASDAQ/HMIN), and 7 Days Group Holdings Limited (NYSE/SVN). All three companies have above-average long-term share appreciation potential, but I will take a closer look at 7 Days Group today. 7 Days is the third largest national economy hotel chain. It offers limited services under the “7 Days Inn” brand, akin to budget hotels and motels in the U.S. and Canada. As of December 31, 2011, 7 Days Group operated 944 hotels, up from 568 hotels a year earlier. The company has another 234 hotels under development. Currently there are 94,684 hotel rooms in 141 cities. In 2011, the occupancy rates were between 81.5% and 87.9%, depending on the hotel. The nine analysts who follow 7 Days Group estimate that the company will make $0.59 per American Depositary Share (ADS) in 2010, followed by profits of $0.82 per ADS in 2011, which are both higher than previous estimates. Revenues are predicted to grow 31.2% in 2012 and 24.4% in 2013. 7 Days Group may or may not have the greatest potential of the three stocks. Only time will tell, but what is for sure is that the travel sector in China is a key growth area. Want to know some of the top U.S. restaurant stocks that are in China? Read about my ideas in The Top Three Restaurant Stocks in China.
The recent mild winter in the U.S. is providing farmers a unique opportunity to profit from high agricultural commodities prices due to adverse weather in other parts of the world. In addition to world demand for food continuing to increase, the mild winter has allowed farmers to plant crops at one of the earliest recorded times over the last several decades. Agricultural commodities can be fickle, based on weather and various inputs such as fertilizer. U.S. farmers are certainly going to try to profit by obtaining as high a yield as possible for their agricultural commodities. This will mean, in my opinion, increased use of fertilizer this year.

www.StockCharts.com In its recent fourth-quarter report, The Mosaic Company (NYSE/MOS) announced that potash and fertilizer volume should increase at a faster rate than it expected, as demand is stronger than earlier guidance. Sales of agricultural commodities have increased to overseas markets, including China, other regional Asian countries, and South America. This demand is driving farmers to use larger levels of fertilizers and potash. While earlier estimates had fertilizer companies earning less, as farmers initially balked at the higher prices potash firms demand for their fertilizer, it now appears that demand is picking up after all. Mosaic is also doubling its dividends, to a total of 12.5 cents a share from five cents a share. The company had $3.2 billion in cash at the end of February. It is generally a positive sign when companies increase dividends. If a potash producer like Mosaic feels so comfortable in doubling its dividend, then the future is most likely brighter than we anticipate for other fertilizer producers. 
www.StockCharts.com Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE/IPI) is another fertilizer producer that recently issued preliminary guidance for this year. While full quarterly release won’t come until the early part of May, Intrepid Potash estimates production of 215,000 to 225,000 tons of potash. The firm expects that the existing supplies of potash held by retailers will be diminished by the second quarter, and expects a pickup into the second half of the year. The average sale price per ton is expected to be $470.00-$480.00, with Intrepid Potash having a cost of $190.00-$200.00 per ton. Intrepid Potash trades at a forward price-earnings ratio of just over 14, with a price/earnings to growth ratio of 0.27, which shows that the stock might be undervalued. The profit margin is 27.31% and the operating margin is 40.28%. The company appears to be well-managed. Intrepid Potash has over 176 million in cash and essentially no debt. As we can see by the three-year weekly chart of Intrepid Potash, it is now bouncing off a higher low and is above the median downtrend line. While there is overhead resistance for Intrepid Potash, the current market appears to have some renewed bullish interest from investors. Mosaic is also showing a wedge formation over the last two years, with upward sloping moving average convergence/divergence and Relative Strength Index. While neither one is an outright buy at this stage, they are certainly stocks I would pay attention to over the next several weeks, as they could become bullish. Confirmation would need to come with a breakout up away from the top downtrend line in each case.
China is growing exponentially in many areas. An area that is growing at an incredible rate is the mobile phone sector, where the number of subscribers has surpassed one billion. Think about it. There are more mobile users in China than the population of the U.S., the European Union, and Canada combined!
These are exciting times for China’s mobile market, as the regulators, in an effort to increase competitive powers, decided to allow the operation of three major carriers. The adoption of the next generation 3G and 4G networks will also help to drive additional growth in the country’s mobile phone market, as there will be a need for new phones. About 153 million mobile users are on 3G in China according to Topeka Capital Markets, but this number is predicted to rise to as high as 250 million by year-end. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) is a major player in China, with sales in the country accounting for about 20% of total sales in the first quarter and this is expected to rise. The income demographics support the spending. In a recent research finding, Credit Suisse predicted that the household wealth in China will double to $35.0 trillion by around 2015, based on achieving sustainable GDP growth at or near the current levels. This will allow consumers to spend on more non-essential goods and services such as mobile phones. The country may be slowing, but it remains a top growth area, as I discussed in Why the Great Wall of China’s Still Standing. The top mobile company in the country is China Mobile Limited (NYSE/CHL). With a market cap of around $222 billion, the company is massive. For instance, by comparison, AT&T Inc. (NYSE/T) is the largest mobile provider in the U.S. with a market cap of $193 billion and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE/VZ) has a market cap of $114 billion. China Mobile is one of the largest companies in the country and would rank high in the U.S. market. It is the market leader and can be considered a “widow” stock for long-term buy-and-hold investors. China Mobile is ranked the top brand in BusinessWeek’s “20 Best China Brands.” The stock pays an annual dividend of $2.03 for a current dividend yield of 3.7%, based on the prevailing stock price of $55.36 as of April 30. The company had 667 million subscribers or 67% of all mobile users in China at the end of March. The company is the world’s largest provider of cellular services based on subscribers and has set its sights on expansion outside of the Great Wall. China Mobile owns Bertrange-Luxembourg-based Millicom International Cellular S.A. (Pink Sheets/MIICF), a telecom operator with about 8.4 million subscribers and 17 mobile operations in 16 countries, including: El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras in Central America; Bolivia and Paraguay in South America; Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Mauritius, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania in Africa; Pakistan and Sri Lanka in South Asia; and Cambodia and Laos in Southeast Asia. Going forward, China Mobile will benefit from the massive mobile market and growth in the 3G and 4G telecommunications area. You can also look at the makers of mobile accessories and builders of telecommunication networks in China. The reality is that the Chinese mobile market is massive and worth a look.
The Chinese economy has accelerated at a high level for a number of years. While China’s growth might slow down in the short term, the long-term forecasts for the Chinese economy are extremely bullish. Many firms are hoping for an increase in corporate earnings by expanding sales and production within the Chinese economy. While most Americans still think of the Chinese economy as production only, meaning cheap labor, several corporations see more to the Chinese economy than that simple notion.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F) has just announced a $5.0-billion expansion in the Chinese economy. This includes a massive increase in production, as many would expect, but it is also expanding its dealerships throughout Asia. Ford, along with many corporations, sees the Chinese economy as the great frontier for corporate earnings growth over the next several decades. By completion of the fifth factory in 2015, Ford’s total capacity of production plants will be to build 1.2 million cars in China. Ford isn’t the only carmaker looking to China for increased corporate earnings growth. General Motors Company (NYSE/GM) has been active in the Chinese economy and has a larger share of the market with its head start. GM is also looking to continue its expansion with additional joint venture partners and more production facilities to take advantage of the continued Chinese growth over the next two decades. While GM is number one in overall car sales for non-Chinese automakers, Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft (Pink Sheets/VLKAY) is also a large player in the Chinese economy, with additional production also set to take place over the next few years. As Ford stated in its release regarding new production facilities, it expects China’s growth in car sales to be 70% larger by 2020. With forecasts of car sales estimated to grow at that point to over 35 million units, as estimated by LMC automotive, compared to the current pace in the U.S. of 14 million units, it is evident that the Chinese economy will be the place for additional corporate earnings growth for many car manufacturers. But the car market for the Chinese economy isn’t only in the low-end, cheaper cars. The high-end market is very active, adding to profit margins and corporate earnings for several firms. Nissan unveiled that it will be producing its luxury brand, “Infinity,” in 2014. It, too, will be ramping up production of vehicles locally for the Chinese economy, as authorities enact a 25% tariff on imported cars. Nissan’s Infinity brand will join a crowded luxury car market with “BMW”, “Mercedes-Benz” and “Audi.” While the Chinese economy is certainly slowing, the long-term potential is very strong. Current reports of first-quarter auto sales show a slowing Chinese economy, with a decrease of 3.4% in total automobile sales compared to 2011. The trend is obviously showing that the Chinese economy is slowing down. But the long-term potential, if one were to look out over one to two decades is still quite strong. Many auto manufacturers are looking for any market to grow corporate earnings now that Europe is in a deep recession and possibly getting worse. While the Chinese economy is certainly slowing down, carmakers believe that they have better potential for corporate earnings growth there than they do in Europe or the U.S.

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