Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Monday, May 21, 2012

Archive for the ‘stock market’ Category


Mining Stocks—They’re Down, But Not Out

 junior gold minersGold has shown some good support and buying after recently declining below $1,550. The June gold remains extremely bearish on the charts and is searching for oversold buying support at around $1,500 to $1,525. So far we are seeing support emerge on weakness.

I continue to like gold going forward given the possible exit of Greece from the eurozone after the failure to form a coalition government. New elections are set for June 17, but the uncertainty will be an overhang on equities. A number of Spanish banks were also downgraded, as the 10-year bond yield surged towards seven percent, which inevitably is not sustainable for the country given the current weak financial position.

As I discussed in recent commentary, I do not feel it is time to dump gold stocks and I believe that major price weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate stocks.

I favor the metal plays and continue to smell opportunities, especially in the mining companies and junior gold miners.

China and India continue to be the world’s top buyers of gold and this is expected to continue. The Chinese have also been buying mining companies around the world in an effort to increase its reserves. This is a reason why I like some of the smaller mining companies, especially those with a massive reserve of proven metals in the ground waiting to be developed and needing a cash-rich partner to get the ore out of the ground.

You can consider buying the major gold players such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE/FCX), Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE/ABX), and Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE/NEM), as I discussed in The Gold Stock at the Top of My List, but, for an opportunity for some real big gains, you need to own some of the smaller miners.

If you want to play the small mining companies, there are hundreds of plays.

I have listed several small mining companies below that look interesting for the speculative trader. Note that these are not necessarily recommendations to buy right now; but just suggestions of the types of stocks you should be looking at.

Small-cap gold miner Jaguar Mining Inc. (NYSE/JAG) is an interesting miner. The stock surged in late 2011 on news of a potential $1.0-billion takeover bid from China-based Shandong Gold Group, but the bid never came to fruition for whatever reasons.

Keegan Resources Inc. (AMEX/KGN, TSX/KGN) continues to report positive feasibility results, specifically at its Esaase Project in southwest Ghana. I like this stock as an aggressive small-cap play with above-average price appreciation potential.

Another I like is Canada-based Taseko Mines Limited (AMEX/TGB), which mines for copper and gold in Canada. The small-cap has a market cap of $532 million and is profitable with above-average price appreciation potential. Trading at 5.32X its estimated 2013 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42, I like the value here.

Take a look at small-cap Golden Star Resources, Ltd. (AMEX/GSS). The gold company has operating mines in western Ghana and southwest Ghana, along with exploration properties in Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, Cote d’Ivoire, and Brazil. Trading at 5.13X its 2013 EPS, I like the valuation and potential for long-term gains.

For gold traders, check out small-cap Nevsun Resources Ltd. (AMEX/NSU), which beat on EPS and revenues.

Within the non-precious mining companies, take a look at Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (NYSE/TC), a miner of molybdenum—a metal used for creating stainless steel and other applications, including the production of rare earth used in electronics.

My advice to you is to buy a mixture of exploration-stage gold mining companies along with small to large gold producers. Under this scenario, you can play both the potential aggressive gains of exploration stocks and the steady returns of the large gold producers.


Stock Market Held Hostage by Eurozone Uncertainty

eurozoneThe stock market continues to be in correction mode and so are gold and oil prices. But, the trading action in the equity market isn’t that bad at all; the down days aren’t that pronounced and we’re seeing solid rebound days, which signals that buyers are definitely out there. Daily investor sentiment is no doubt affected by developments in the eurozone and I think it’s fair to expect things to get worse regarding the sovereign debt crisis. European policymakers are likely to apply another round of “patches” to the problem; but, next year, I think the eurozone will be in for some real turmoil.

This combined with the usual geopolitical concerns and slow growth in the U.S. economy means that there is no rush for stock market investors to take action. It’s like the domestic stock market is in some sort of holding pattern, waiting for a shock to occur. Regardless, investment risk remains very high.

The S&P 500 Index is now in danger of giving up all its gain since the beginning of the year. I suspect we’ll get some consolidation around 1,300 on the index, but if this breaks, we’re back to where we started. The stock market was due for a correction after this year’s solid price move. The problems in the eurozone are now compounding the pullback.

It’s my expectation that second-quarter earnings season will be just as solid as the first quarter. The stock market, however, just might look right past the numbers if problems in the eurozone get worse. It’s the uncertainty of it all that is keeping domestic investors from betting on domestic fundamentals, which are better than those in the eurozone. I repeat my view that stock market investors should be watching their favorite large-cap, dividend paying stocks closely for new entry points. I think the correction has further legs, but price-to-earnings ratios continue to be fair.

I’ve learned over the years that anything can happen in capital markets and that, very often, price extremes are the norm. With the stock market being emotionally driven (just like the rest of the world), you have to expect the market to overdo the underlying fundamentals. I suspect that it won’t be too long before we get a small rally in the share prices. I don’t expect any major shock like a debt default in the eurozone to all of a sudden just happen. My best guess is that we’ll get a slow but continuous deterioration of investor confidence in eurozone bonds, which will precipitate a political crisis before a debt default or currency breakup. Institutional investors are just about done buying the bonds of weaker eurozone countries.

We’re in for a lot of change over the next 18 months and it isn’t going to be pretty. The stock market is rightly stalled over all the eurozone uncertainty, while domestic fundamentals slowly improve. If there was one industry where I’d like to see further price correction, it’s that of railroad stocks. (See U.S. Economy: What Freight Haulers Are Saying About It.) This is one sector where companies keep saying that the operating environment is getting better and, to be frank, I’m becoming less enthused about investing in businesses that operate outside of North America.


Google’s New Strategy to Battle Apple

 technology stocksTechnology stocks are in a constant battle for the wallets of consumers in the retail sector. The ecosystem built by Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) through its “iOS” (operating system) has been a huge favorite with consumers in the retail sector. This uniform operating system is important for technology stocks, as it provides a consistent experience for consumers. Since the retail sector is so finicky, this consistent experience has generated a lot of support for Apple’s products.

More control over an operating system is important for technology stocks. This allows them to update the software and implement new features as they want, not the whims of other companies. This is what Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) is attempting to do with its new strategy regarding its “Android” operating system. Previously only one handset-maker had early access to the Android software. Google will now work with several handset-makers to release the same operating system on multiple devices. This synchronization of uniform software experiences should help the firm in the retail sector.

This attempt to offer the best operating system all at once is also an effort to gain more market share in the tablet space that Apple is dominating. Technology stocks tend to follow one another when they see something working. The dominance in the retail sector by Apple is bound to bring more competitors that will emulate what that firm is doing. Google already is making progress in other parts of the business, as I outlined in the article, Can Google Overcome Potential Pitfalls?

retail sector

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Technology stocks have had a strong move from the lows last fall. Not all technology stocks are alike, of course, so studying the chart of each one gives you a better picture of what the investor sentiment is. Following the wide range from the October low until the peak in early 2012, the stock has been forming a giant wedge. This is a sign that neither the bulls nor bears are in control, but at some point one side will become exhausted and the next leg will begin. One positive sign is that technology stocks and the market overall have sold off quite hard recently, but Google has moved up very strongly. Anytime a stock moves against its market sector, this is quite significant to other technology stocks. The upper bar represents resistance and, if Google can exceed this level, it would be a very positive sign.

I think a lot of positive momentum has been building due to the initial public offering (IPO) of Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB). Many investors compare technology stocks to each other. When comparing the valuation of technology stocks, investors are looking at Google against Facebook, it’s quite apparent that: a) Google is very cheap; b) Facebook is very expensive; or c) a combination of both. Frankly, at current valuations, Google is far cheaper than Facebook and I think that’s what’s been pushing up the stock.


Facebook Stock Faces Valuation Issues

stock marketSocial media is hot and growing, but making money from it is another story.

The much-anticipated and overly hyped initial public offering (IPO) of Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB) is set to roll in today, May 18, 2012, following the company’s road show that helped to drum up excitement and, in the process, drive up the offer price. My stock analysis is that Facebook is clearly the most hyped up issue since the debut of Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) in August 2004.

The offering was increased to around 421 million shares with massive over subscription. The offer price will be in the $34.00 to $38.00 range. At this price, Facebook is valued at about $100 billion versus the $207-billion market cap of Google. Yet, when Google first appeared, the market cap was a mere $32.6 billion, which was significant at that time; but, when compared to Facebook, it appears to be much more reasonable, based on my stock analysis.

My stock analysis is that Facebook is not exactly making tons of money from its 900 million users. In other words, the company has yet to figure out how to drive revenues from its users the way Google has done with its advertising and other broad Internet services and assets. Perhaps Facebook will be able to evolve over time given its access to capital; but, for the time being, I really question the market value assigned based on my stock analysis.

Facebook will need to expand its revenue stream away from being predominately advertising, but my stock analysis is that this will not be easy, as more experienced companies such as Google also want to expand into the social networking space currently dominated by Facebook. There’s also the excellent “Skype” service that is owned by Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT), but has yet to be fully harnessed. However, in my stock analysis, this could change. You can read my thoughts in, Should Apple Worry? Microsoft Targets Mobile Market.

My concern, shared by many others, is regarding Facebook’s soft advertising sales and its failure so far to enter China. Just ask Google about China.

Aside from the need to expand its revenues base, Facebook needs to increase its user base. The 900 million users are impressive given the short eight-year history of the company, but the real growth will be the ability of the company to get into China. My stock analysis is that this will not be easy.

You all know how much I like the social networking space and its potential for enormous growth in China. The statistics don’t lie, as the country is tops in the world, with a whopping 505 million on the Internet at the end of November 2011, according to the China Internet Network Information Center. The number of broadband users stands at around 15.51 million users, up 18.6% year-over-year. There are also over 340 million smartphone users.

About 58% of the Internet users in China roam the Web via their cell phones, according to the State Council Information Office. These are massive numbers, according to my stock analysis, and point to the staggering growth of the Internet and related services in China.

My stock analysis is that the market in China is ideal for Facebook. The problem will be to appease the Chinese censorship and strict privacy rules and this will not be easy.

Facebook is also making headway in India (Facebook’s third largest market, with 45 million users), with its population of over 1.18 billion people. India is estimated to surpass China by 2025 and hit a staggering 1.6 billion by 2050, according to the BBC. What makes India attractive is its democratic government, young and educated workforce, and high literacy rate at 71.7% for those seven years and older, according to the country’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

Today, Facebook will deliver huge trading profits with a massive surge at the open. My stock analysis is that the company will need to produce stronger results to justify the share price.


Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate


Profit Confidential Disclaimer