A month ago, I expressed my concerns with the S&P chart and thought stocks were set for additional weakness. My investment advice was to be careful and not to chase stocks. Even after the one-day surge last Tuesday, I thought it was largely due to an extreme oversold condition resulting from stocks closing lower in seven of eight sessions. In my view, the bias continues to be negative and, until there is a base formation, I sense that stocks may edge lower.
Archive for the ‘Stock Market Analysis’ Category
More reality is creeping back into the stock market and the bear market rally looks vulnerable. With so much money sitting on the sidelines, a lot of institutional investors took the opportunity early this earnings season to nibble away at some long-term positions, as well as actually trade the market. There’s no doubt that the stock market’s been strong since achieving its new low in early March, but I think investors need to be very cautious right now. The news isn’t good enough for any sustainable stock market rally.
With the current bias to the downside, you need to have some risk management in place to avoid watching your trading capital disappear. This could be via mental or physical stop-loss orders. Or, if you want to avoid selling into a negative market, you could write call options on some of your stocks to generate some premium income and help reduce the average cost of a position.
However, the uncertainties… Read More
Price stability has always been an important goal of Western central banks around the world. Only until very recently have most central banks been quite hawkish on inflation and rightly so. Now, however, the threat of inflation remains, but there is the added risk of asset deflation, which is very real. This means that central banks have room to cut interest rates without the worry of stoking inflation too much…. Read More
Black Monday appeared again, as the DOW fell as much as 800 points but recovered, and closed down 370 points or 3.58% on the day, breaking below key psychological support at 10,000. Across the board, selling was panicked, as investors flocked to the exits, dumping stocks. The focus of the selling was technology and small-cap growth stocks, as worries about a global meltdown and recession drove the selling. The fact… Read More
If there is one thing I have learned from years of investing and obsessing with stocks, it is that no investment goes up or down in a straight line. After days of going down, the stock market is entering a severely oversold condition, from which we can expect to see some bargain-hunting by the patient money sitting on the sidelines. As we all know, Warren Buffett has already started buying… Read More
Markets continue to maintain a negative bias, as stocks trade at multi-year lows, with 2008 potentially the worst showing since the bear market in 2000. We are awaiting a second vote on a revised $700-billion bailout program that will give the markets some confidence. However, we feel it will do very little for small guys, as it appears more to be helping out failing companies. Yet, in spite of this,… Read More
The people that I speak with who are really worried about the current state of things are those who are retired or are just about to retire. Even if you look at the most conservative of stocks that yield dividends, the vast majority of blue-chip stocks have been very hard-hit by the current bear market.
Also, if you are relying on income from your investments, your options are becoming very … Read More
A key variable in the success of the economy will be the labor market going forward. As business slows, companies will cut production and send workers home. This will translate into lost wages and a decline in consumer spending that will ultimately impact the economy negatively.
In the U.S., the labor market has been soft, as indicated by the monthly non-farm payroll data and rise in unemployment claims. In September,… Read More