Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Gone Are the Days When the U.S. Bond Market Was the Place to Be

Tuesday, March 26th, 2013
By for Profit Confidential

U.S. Bond Market Was the Place to BeIn 1980, the total outstanding debt in the U.S. bond market was about $2.5 trillion—this included municipal bonds, Treasury bonds, money market instruments, corporate debt, and asset-backed securities. Fast-forward to 2012, and the U.S. bond market stands at $38.13 trillion—an increase of more than 1,400%! (Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, March 7, 2013.)

The chart below shows how the U.S. bond market has ballooned over time.

Outstanding U.S.Bond Market Debt stock chart

              Chart copyright Lombardi Publishing Corporation, 2013;
Data Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)

As I have written in these pages before, I expect the coming sell-off in the U.S. bond market to start slowly; nothing like what we saw when the key stock indices plummeted in 2008 and 2009. It will be slow and steady, gradually picking up speed.

Bond investors are facing two risks in the U.S. bond market: interest rate risk and credit risk.

  • Still worried about the economy? Become an elite charter member of George's DAILY PROFITS and you could...

    TRIPLE YOUR MONEY IN A MONTH!

    George gave us the $2.8-billion IT infrastructure provider, up 4,745.20%; the $1.8-billion advertising agency, up 1,295.44%; and the $762-million business software company, up 1,213.19%.

    Only charter members can follow George daily.

    Learn how here!

The Federal Reserve has been keeping interest rates artificially low since the financial crisis began, while printing an unprecedented amount of new paper money in its efforts to boost economic growth. The Fed will eventually have to raise interest rates to tame inflationary pressures. When that happens, bond investors could face extensive losses. A simple rule of economics: bond prices fall when interest rates rise. The U.S. bond market will be no different.

The U.S. government is spending with two hands. It has been posting budget deficits of more than $1.0 trillion for the last four years. It won’t surprise me to see another year with a U.S. budget deficit of more than $1.0 trillion. The U.S. national debt is headed well above $17.0 trillion.

Dear reader, it is not a hidden fact anymore: the U.S. government is spending rigorously, while borrowing from the Federal Reserve to stay afloat. Unfortunately, this type of behavior can only go on for so long before our creditors—the bond investors—realize the Ponzi scheme that’s really happening.

As a result of all this, there is already softening in the U.S. bond market. For example, 30-year U.S. bond prices have been declining since November of 2012, having fallen more than 4.5%.

The glory of the U.S. bond market may just be coming to an end. A hike in interest rates is not that far off now. Gone are the days when the U.S. bond market was the place to be.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: +1 (from 1 vote)
Gone Are the Days When the U.S. Bond Market Was the Place to Be, 10.0 out of 10 based on 1 rating
  • Jim Beam

    The performance of the stock market since you have been saying its going to fall has done nothing but make you loose credibility. I'm sure there are many people that are kicking themselves for listening to you .

This is an entirely free service. No credit card required.

We hate spam as much as you do.
Check out our privacy policy.

Michael Lombardi - Economist, Financial AdvisorMichael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Some of the stock recommendations in Michael's various financial newsletters have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland. Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter or Add Michael Lombardi to your Google+ circles

The Great Crash of 2014

A stock market crash bigger than what happened in 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.

In fact, we are predicting this crash will be even more devastating than the 1929 crash…

…the ramifications of which will hit the economy and Americans deeper than anything we’ve ever seen.

Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about this, we’ve just produced a video to warn investors called, “The Great Crash of 2014.”

In case you are not familiar with our research work on the stock market:

In late 2001, in the aftermath of 9/11, we told our clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after we made that call.

We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish on gold.

Throughout 2002, we urged our readers to buy gold stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.

In November of 2007, we started begging our customers to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards, it was widely recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.

We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009.

And in March of 2009, we started telling our readers to jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175% from when we made that call in 2009 to today.

Many investors will find our next prediction hard to believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.

Even if you don’t own stocks, what’s about to happen will affect you!

I urge you to be among the first to get our next major prediction.
See it here now in this just-released alarming video.