Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Why Are Yields on U.S. Treasuries Rising All of a Sudden?

Tuesday, January 29th, 2013
By for Profit Confidential

U.S. Treasuries RisingCould U.S. debt be reaching a breaking point?

In the chart below of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, it looks like yields on U.S. bonds have bottomed out and are rising again.

As the chart below shows, in June of 2012, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded close to $135.00. Now 10-year Treasury prices have broken below $131.00—a decline of almost three percent.

As the prices for 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined, an interesting event took place on the chart. The 200-day moving average of the price of the U.S. 10-year Treasury note moved above its 50-day moving average—a bearish signal according to technical analysis. The last time this bearish crossover took place for the U.S. 10-year Treasury was at the beginning of 2011.

 

U.S. 10-year Treasury Chart

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Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Yields have fallen off a cliff for the U.S. 10-year Treasury. In mid-June 2007, 10-Year Treasury notes were yielding about five percent. Now they only yield two percent! That’s a decline of about 60%. People (savers) living off the income generated from their U.S. bond holdings were destroyed as the yields collapsed.

But something is happening now. The yield of the 10-year Treasury has moved back to two percent from the low of 1.4% recorded near the end of July 2012.

Since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, U.S. bonds have gained extra attention by investors and institutions alike as they fled stock markets and ran for the “safety” of U.S. bonds. As a result, they drove the price of U.S. bonds such as the 10-year Treasury higher and caused yields to go down significantly.

In June of 2007, before the financial crisis fully brewed, the 10-year Treasury note traded below $105.00. Now the same notes cost little more than $130.00, meaning that 10-year Treasury notes have increased almost 25% in price.

Will investors flee the U.S. bonds market as the so-called economic recovery takes hold and the government no longer has a ceiling on how much it can borrow?

There’s definitely selling pressure in U.S. bonds, otherwise the yields would not have risen 30% since last summer. (Imagine if the Federal Reserve was not buying $45.0 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries per month; a move that keeps prices artificially low, because demand appears so strong.)

Trouble could be brewing in the bond market. Why? If the Federal Reserve is buying so many billions of dollars in bonds each month, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury is rising, something is out of whack.

What would happen to the yields on U.S. bonds if the Fed stopped buying them? U.S. bonds could be treading in dangerous waters.

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  • Roland Leung

    So when will the top be in? You have been wrong since Oct 2012. You have been BS-ing with crash comments for the entire year in 2012. Crash the heck.

    I was bombarded with messages last year that the actual debt ceiling would be Oct. Oct came and went and nothing happened. Then, you mentioned how the US will fall in the an abyss after the Dec 31st. It came and went and nothing happened. Feb 6. Market at ALL TIME HIGH. Way to go.

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Michael Lombardi - Economist, Financial AdvisorMichael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Some of the stock recommendations in Michael's various financial newsletters have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland. Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter or Add Michael Lombardi to your Google+ circles