Economic Forecast

An economic forecast is a prediction of what future periods of economic activity will be in various categories. This could be a prediction of the overall economy through the gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels, inflation, interest rates, and numerous other subcategories. Economic forecasts are designed to help companies and investors allocate capital.

Recent economic data signals a modest improvement of economic activity and current economic forecasts going into 2015 have been increased. As is the case, however, when dealing with future events, unforeseen shocks can turn an economic forecast upside down very quickly.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has clearly indicated that it intends to increase short-term interest rates as soon as U.S. economic activity improves from its current level. The central bank’s economic forecast for economic activity and employment has improved for 2015, but it’s still unclear as to when the central bank will effect its first change in interest rates in a number of years.


The last thing Wall Street is thinking about is an economic collapse in 2015. After all, the stock markets are at record highs, unemployment is down, and inflation is in check. But the fact of the matter is that these…

We continue to see the Chinese economy slow down, which is based on numerous sources both within the government and independent firms. The economic forecast of China has continued to move down according to many people, including myself. However, the…

The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), a not-for-profit research group, believes that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—as measured by the government—does not reflect the true inflation rate in this country. The AIER believes that the true cost of living…

In terms of what economic growth will look like in 2012, the mainstream is sticking to the “muddling along” economic forecast theory. Just as in 2011, the economic forecast talk is of the U.S. being fine and that we will…

Just as the Federal Reserve is winding down its $600-billion QE2 monetary stimulus program, the latest releases of U.S. financial data increasingly point to another slowdown in the American and global economies. Being a technically focused analyst, I generally don’t…

Before I get into my annual stock market prediction on where the market is headed for the year ahead, it’s important to first take a look back. As my readers know, we turned bearish on stocks in March of 2009,…

The end of this year will make the ninth consecutive December 31 when the price of gold bullion was higher than the previous December 31. Gold has risen from approximately $300.00 in 2002 to $1,380 per ounce today—a gain of…

I still think that investors need to be looking for value in this stock market. Investment risk is too high to warrant chasing after high-flyers. For speculative investors, the two best sectors of this market continue to be mining shares…

The next G-20 meeting should be interesting. The Fed is intent on buying more of its assets and unleashing more paper money into the already oversupplied financial systems. This has governments and central bankers of emerging markets very worried, particularly…

With the first half of 2010 behind us, here's an update on where I see things headed for the remainder of 2010, and where I believe my readers can make some money: Stocks: The surprise in stocks for the immediate…

I recently came across a few attractive technology stocks that would be considered small- to medium-cap in size. They operate in the semiconductor industry and are still riding Intel Corporation's (NASDAQ/INTC) coattails. Still, I really prefer gold and silver in terms…

The new "Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act" is a brick of a law at 2,300 pages. Being a mammoth, no wonder it had spawned a few unintended consequences, one being a just what is meant by credit agencies…

07/19/10 — The general uneasiness of the stock market is blatantly apparent and even good earnings news can't seem to sustain any lasting interest from buyers. Clearly, the bear market reigns. So far, corporate earnings are holding up well, but…

— "The Financial World According to Inya" Column, by Inya Ivkovic, MA What is the relationship between government expansion and economic growth? It is a positively correlated one, almost symbiotic. If an economy is growing, its government is expanding, and…

It's a fact. When stock market analysts and economists all have the same view on the future then they are usually wrong. This has been proven time and time again. And that's why the contrarian view (betting against the popular…