Economic Recovery

Following a period of protracted decline in economic activity, a recovery occurs when business activity is increasing. This is viewed primarily with increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment levels. As businesses increase their sales and are more confident about future activity, they hire more people. The new hires are more confident about their future and spend a portion of their income on business, and the cycle continues. The stock market usually leads an economic recovery, because stock investors look to the future. If investors see an economic recovery 12 months from now, they will start to accumulate shares in companies that will benefit.

Why These “Payroll” Stocks Look Interesting Now

By Friday, September 26, 2014

Payroll Stocks Look Interesting NowVery soon we’re going to hear the earnings news straight from the horse’s mouth. Quarterly earnings are beginning to trickle in and even if you aren’t interested in the stocks that you don’t own, corporate reporting is the most important market intelligence you can review.

For years, Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) was one of those com… Read More

Two Important Economic Signals to Share with My Readers This Morning

By Monday, August 25, 2014

U.S. Consumer Confidence CollapsingA good gauge for me on how consumers in the U.S. economy are faring has always been the statistics coming out of Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT) reported its operating income in its second quarter (ended July 31, 2014) declined by 2.4%. Its subsidiary, Sam’s Club (wholesale store), saw its operating income, after taking … Read More

Your Top Priority When Investing in a Record-High Market

By Thursday, July 10, 2014

What to Prioritize with Stocks at an All-time HighStocks are going to gyrate around second-quarter earnings, but that’s exactly what this market needs—the corporate bottom line and expectations for the rest of the year.

With so many stocks trading at their all-time record-highs, I view investment risk in equities as being high at this time.

This is actually a tough environmen… Read More

Stock Market Pricing-in a Recession?

By Wednesday, July 2, 2014

U.S. Economy Close to Technical RecessionBy no surprise to me whatsoever, the government’s third and final estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a negative annual pace of 2.9%. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 25, 2014.) The U.S. economy’s growth rate in the first quarter of this year was the worst since 2009.

I’ve been w… Read More

Why We Are Closer to a Recession in 2014 Than You Think

By Friday, June 13, 2014

U.S. Economy to Fall into a Recession This QuarterDon’t buy into the notion that there’s economic growth in America!

We’ve already seen U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) “unexpectedly” decline in the first quarter of 2014, and now there are signs of another contraction in the current quarter. (The technical definition of a recession is two negative quarters of GDP—w… Read More