Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Commodity Investors: What Goldman Sachs Is Likely Right About

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011
By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

Goldman Sachs is now saying that it’s time for commodity investors to take some money off the table, as the price cycle for oil, gold, corn and copper is getting tired. I agree with this view if you’re a short-term investor. Everything is looking tired in this market and stocks and commodities are most certainly due for a correction.Goldman Sachs is now saying that it’s time for commodity investors to take some money off the table, as the price cycle for oil, gold, corn and copper is getting tired. I agree with this view if you’re a short-term investor. Everything is looking tired in this market and stocks and commodities are most certainly due for a correction.

As odd as this seems, the feeling I get from the current equity market action is that investors are basically satisfied. Share prices accelerated tremendously (after a period of weak sentiment) in anticipation of better earnings in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter this year. This expectation has mostly been met and the market is appropriately valued. In addition, the outlook for monetary policy is known and there’s stability in most mature economies. Therefore, investors need a new catalyst to get them to buy stocks. This catalyst has yet to present itself and that’s why we’ll likely get a period of lackluster trading action in stocks over the immediate term.

There has been a lot of bandwagon trading in the major commodities and open interest in futures contracts is high. Goldman figures that commodities should pull back in price over the next quarter or so, then reaccelerate as global demand stays relatively constant. The thesis being that speculators have slightly overdone the price action in the major commodities. I agree with this assessment, but would add that commodity price strength has proven to be so robust that the bears have been wrong time and time again. The price of oil should retreat, but I don’t think it will trade below $100.00 a barrel for any length of time.

So, in this market, with all the good news fulfilling expectations, the trading opportunities are reduced. If the spot price of gold pulls back (likely only because of near-term price strength in the U.S. dollar), then I would be considering new positions. The gold story in my view remains intact and nothing new needs to happen. Investing in gold has become the oil story of the past. As economies grow, particularly in Asia, the pressure will be on gold because of price inflation for goods and services, along with a U.S. dollar that’s in a long-term downward trend. But, like I’ve been saying for a while now, there really is no need for investors to rush into any big new positions at this time. A new catalyst is required for the next big trend.

Next Post:
Previous Post:

Tags: , , , , , ,










Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"

Enter e-mail:

We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.



Profit Confidential AuthorMitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for thirteen years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. While Mitchell is not working he enjoys fly fishing, motorcycling and tending to his hobby farm.

Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate


Profit Confidential Disclaimer