Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Major Risk Premium In Gold

Monday, July 31st, 2006
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

After declining to strong support at $550 in mid-June, the basis August Gold on the COMEX has rediscovered its bull legs and has been rallying as geopolitical risks intensify.

 Gold is a play on market risk. During the past month, the increase of geopolitical risk, including the current Israel-Lebanon conflict, added to tensions in North Korea and Iran, have helped drive investors to buy gold, which continues to be considered a safe- haven investment.

 It is clear that there is a major risk premium in gold at this time. The market is expecting a potential near-term end to the Israel- Lebanon conflict and this is reflected in the current retrenchment in gold prices.

 The near-term technical picture for the August gold is neutral, suggesting some hesitancy on the chart in spite of the tense situation in the Middle East. The Relative Strength is also neutral and not indicative of stronger near-term gains, albeit gold prices can quickly rise if the situation in the Middle East escalates to include Syria and Iraq, both supporters of the Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.

 Gold will continue to trade on news from the Middle East in the near-term. Recently, the September gold surged to a high of $647.50 before settling lower.

 This market suits day traders with an appetite for risk. On the upside, there is resistance at $665 and $677.50. A break above could see a move to over $700 and to a potential new contract high.

 But, unless the situation worsens, I’m not convinced gold has enough near-term gas to surge higher.

 Rapid run-ups are generally not sustainable in the short-term and any potential trade should be thought out carefully either with stops in place or enter with a small position just in case selling occurs. A break below the 50-day moving average at $637 could see a decline to the 20-day moving average at $618. The 200-day moving average is well down at $571.

 

Next Post:
Previous Post:

Tags: ,










Sign Up for PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL and
receive a FREE copy of our exclusive report:
"A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS"

Enter e-mail:

We respect your privacy and
will never share your e-mail address.



Profit Confidential AuthorGeorge is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.

Daily Profits


Enter your e-mail address to subscribe to
Profit Confidential — IT'S FREE!
Enter e-mail:
ALSO RECEIVE A FREE COPY of our exclusive report:
"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors"

McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams

 

Corporate
About Us
Privacy
Disclaimer
Contact Us
White List
Sitemap

Profit Confidential
Predictions
Gurus
Archives
FREE Sign-Up
RSS
Twitter
Facebook

Editors
Michael Lombardi
George Leong
Mitchell Clark
Tony Jasansky
Robert Appel
Wendy Potter
Sasha Cekerevac

Topics
Gold Stocks
Stock Market
Bear Market
Bull Market
US Dollar
Euro
Interest Rates

Expertise
U.S.Deficit
Real Estate Market
Debt Crisis
Chinese Economy
Economic Analysis

Guidance
Investment Guidance
Retirement Plan
Chinese Stocks
The Best Stocks
Gold Stock Picking
Real Estate Investment

Resources
Gold
Precious Metals
Real Estate News
Gold Investments
Investing in Real Estate


Profit Confidential Disclaimer