The Canadian Dollar is on Fire
Tuesday, May 9th, 2006
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
Driven by strong commodity prices, Canada has seen its currency on a nice upward trend since trading at $0.62USD in January 2002. On Tuesday, the spot Canadian dollar (CAD) broke above $0.90 U.S. dollars (USD), a level we have not seen in over a decade.
If you have followed Profit Confidential, you would know how bullish we were in the outlook for the CAD against the USD. The CAD also sometimes known as a “Petro currency” has clearly ridden the trend of higher oil prices along with strong upward trends in other commodities such as gold, silver, copper, nickel, and uranium.
You can benefit from a strong Canadian economy and CAD by investing in large multinational companies that have a strong presence in Canada. Companies include Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE.PG), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT) and Dell Inc. (NASDAQ/DELL) to name but a few. Alternatively, you can also buy blue chip Canadian stocks or Canadian index funds that are denominated in the CAD. This allows for currency diversification in your portfolio.
The CAD is now sitting at a crux and may face some selling pressure in the near-term as it tries to mount a sustained move at above $0.90. The technical picture is overbought so we could see some near-term selling pressure as the CAD tries to edge higher.
My feeling is the CAD will continue to trade off the strength of commodities, especially oil prices and metals. There is resistance at $0.9084 and $0.9138. Should one or more of the key commodities soften, I expect the CAD to pause and see some downside pressure to the $0.88 to $0.89 levels.
Overall, I like the CAD, but I doubt very much it can trade higher than the USD, something that happened in the mid-to-late 70s. Yet for now, the CAD is on fire. But the current trend may be overextended so some selling in the near-term could materialize.
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Tags: gold, oil prices, precious metals
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George is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.



