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Welcome to Profit Confidential • Wednesday, May 23, 2012

The Trend in Gold is Consolidation

Tuesday, January 17th, 2006
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential

With the cash price of gold on the COMEX recently trading at $515 an ounce and the June 2010 gold futures contract at a superlative $621 an ounce, the price trend is looking higher. As I said in a recent commentary, the break at $500 could see a subsequent target of $520 to $530 on a cash basis. Today, we are not that far away. The sentiment in gold is bullish, and this has driven activity in the gold sector, which could turn out to be the next hot area for trading as we move into 2006.

 Clearly, the trend is towards consolidation in the gold sector as gold producers aim to reduce the operating cost per ounce by achieving economies of scale and increasing gold reserves in the ground.

 That said, the consolidation is not limited to the major producers, as mid-sized and smaller producers are also getting into the action. The trend is towards reducing the number of gold producers out there. For investors, buying some of the profitable smaller players with good reserves could set you up with the opportunity for takeover profits.

 A rising player, Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE/GG) with a market-cap of $6.89 billion, well below the $9.52 billion and $14.26 billion belonging to Placer and Barrick, is on the hunt. Goldcorp initiated a $420-million takeover bid for an early-stage gold developer in Quebec, Canada-based Virginia Gold Mines Inc. (TSX/VIA) with a market-cap of CDN$470 million. Virginia Gold owns the highly promising Eleonore gold project in Northwestern Quebec. And while Goldcorp is the buyer here, don’t be surprised if it becomes the target of some of the bigger gold producers.

 In another mid-range play, Toronto-based Iamgold Corp. (TSX/IMG), with a market-cap of CDN$1.31 billion, is looking to acquire Australia-based Gallery Gold Ltd. in a friendly stock deal valued at about CDN$230 million.

 As gold attracts more interest, I expect many more consolidation plays on the horizon, especially with some of the smaller and mid- sized players as targets. Savvy investors can surely profit from this trend.

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Profit Confidential AuthorGeorge is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.

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