Is There Potential in Fuel Cell Stocks?
Wednesday, December 5th, 2007
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
As of December 3, the average price of gasoline was hovering at around $3.06 per gallon in the United States, up 76.4% on a year- over-year basis, according to the Energy Information Administration. Now, if you live in California, the weather might be nicer, but you are also paying about $3.36 per gallon, some 10% higher than the national average, and up a whopping 86.5% year- over-year.
Given the high cost to drive, consumers will feel the pinch and this could impact the key holiday shopping season that is now in progress.
The reality is that there needs to be a viable alternative to fossil fuels, something that has been in discussion for over a decade. But so far nothing significant has developed. A decade ago, there was a growing belief that the future of the auto industry was going to shift from fossil fuel burning vehicles to those that run on hydrogen fuel cell technology. Carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere was polluting our air and causing a greenhouse-like atmosphere to form around the Earth, thereby increasing global warming and killing our air quality. Moreover, there was an effort in theory to want to reduce our dependence on oil. Can you imagine if it played out according to the plan given the current high oil prices?
Governments around the world were behind the concept. The U.S. government firmly put its support behind the development of fuel cell technology for vehicles. In the U.S., General Motors Corporation (NYSE/GM), Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F) and Daimler AG (NYSE/DAI) threw research capital into fuel cell development and the formation of alliances.
Key fuel cell companies such as FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ/FCEL) and Ballard Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ/BLDP) were all the rage on the Street, as investors were convinced that fuel cells would soon be running vehicles worldwide.
Ballard, the market leader, traded at a high of $132.00 in March 2000, as investors could not get enough of the stock. Unfortunately, things did not unfold as Ballard had planned, as fuel cell technology remains at this time a concept that cannot seem to catch on. Fuel cell technology exists and has been tested to success in buses, but Ballard has not yet developed a fuel cell that is small and cost-effective enough to enter the mainstream. The stock is down 97% to the current $4.00 range. FuelCell also traded at about $50.00 in 2000, but is now around $9.00.
So is there any hope? The answer is yes, but the odds for success are low in the short term. The reality is that the fuel cell development sector is continuing to lose vast amounts of money. And, unless there is a renewed concerted effort to fund these companies, it may just become a dead technology that once held promise.
Losses in the fuel cell industry in North America are massive. Revenues are minimal and non-material. The trend does not look encouraging. We are seeing a rise in hybrid cars that run on both gasoline and electricity.
As an investment, the potential of fuel cell stocks is what I consider a long shot, unless the government and automakers put more capital towards making a fuel cell that can work in everyday vehicles. Whether this will happen is unknown, but what I know is that it is purely a gamble. I believe there are much better places to invest your hard-earned capital.
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George is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.
