Keep Your Money to Yourself
Monday, July 7th, 2008
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
Traders in U.S. stocks got a much-needed break as markets closed for the July the 4th weekend at 1 p.m. on Thursday. At this time, those trading the long side continue to face difficulties and bearish market and investor sentiment. The buying last Thursday on the DOW was driven by an oversold condition in stocks. The reality is that the bias continues to be focused on the downside.
On the energy side, oil prices continued to rise, as supported by bullish technical signals. The basis August light sweet crude on the NYMEX jumped to a record $145.85 in European trading last Thursday. We continue to view the high oil and gasoline costs as a major risk for the economy and stocks.
It is clear that investors are increasingly nervous given the condition of the economy and surging oil and gasoline prices, It will be interesting to see if travel during the past holiday weekend declined. In my view, it has not been a surprise to watch the recent drop in stocks. The 15% decline in the blue-chip DOW has been somewhat of a surprise.
Over the next several weeks, all eyes will focus on the second- quarter earnings reports. Analysts expect the results to be flat and this could drag into the third quarter, unless the investment climate improves. I believe the current market risk remains high and this will cap any sustainable upside moves. Unless oil and gasoline prices fall significantly, and the housing market picks up and reverses its current negative trend, I really find it difficult to imagine stocks trending higher.
The key now is capital preservation and avoiding any high-risk trades that could reduce your asset base. I would also begin to maintain a list of stocks that interest you and get set to buy once the market sentiment improves. The fact is there is a lot of cash on the sidelines.
Next Post: This Market Not for the Faint of HeartPrevious Post: The Perfect Storm
Tags: dow jones, oil prices, stock market
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George is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.



