Dumping the Retail Stocks
Wednesday, August 30th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
When we look at the stock market today, we see two sectors getting hard hit: Housing stocks (companies like Toll Brothers) and mortgage stocks (companies like Countrywide Financial). Reports keep coming in about the softening U.S. housing market, and companies that either make houses or lend money to consumers to buy houses, are seeing their stock prices fall rapidly.
What group of stocks are next to fall in light of the softening U.S. housing market?
The stocks of companies that sell retail products to the American consumer, I believe, are next on the hit list. Many retail stores are already reporting soft sales. In my opinion, they haven’t seen anything yet in respect to weaker sales.
As consumers continue to feel the effects of soft property prices, they will first react by cutting spending on big ticket items like houses, cars, and appliances. Their next step will be to cut back on their retail purchases.
It’s really just common sense. A typical consumer bought a house (or two) in the past couple of years and put little money down, financing most of the purchase. Interest rates moved up and now that consumer is facing higher monthly mortgage interest payments. Higher payments might be okay (if you can afford them comfortably) when housing prices are rising, but when you are faced with higher mortgage payments and you see more for sale signs popping up on your street, houses taking longer to sell and prices moving lower, it can’t feel good.
You start to worry, you cut back on spending. New home builder stocks moved lower first because demand for new homes dropped. Naturally, mortgage stocks fell next because if homes are not selling, consumers are cutting down on their borrowing. The next piece in the puzzle I see is a drop-off in retail sales as consumer confidence begins to plunge. The retail stocks will be the next to soften. If you are an aggressive investor, shorting stocks in the retail sector might prove to be quite fruitful.
NEWSFLASH–The U.S. Conference Board index of consumer confidence dropped to a nine month low in July. the biggest monthly drop since Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast last September. For months I’ve been warning about the effects of negative consumer confidence and the economy. This is only our first glimpse of just how negative consumers will get as the housing market softens.
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Tags: consumer confidence, retail stocks, stock market, stock prices, U.S. housing market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



