Have No Fear; More Interest-Rate Cuts Are Almost Here
Thursday, February 21st, 2008
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
A little late to joining the “slower growth” party:
Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its official growth forecast for the economy for 2008 to a median of 1.65%. This revision is sharply lower than the Fed’s previous 2008 growth estimate of 2.2%.
(For economic number junkies, the last time the American economy grew less than two percent was back in 2001-2002, when the U.S. last suffered a recession.)
As we all know, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by one and one-quarter percent in January to kick-start the economy. Concern arose yesterday in the financial markets that the Fed would not be able to cut interest rates much further because of rising inflation.
Wednesday, the Fed raised its official inflation target for 2008 to a median of 2.25%, up from its previous forecast of 1.95%. Also Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department said that consumer prices rose by a greater than expected 0.4% in January.
What does all this mean for investors?
Economists are getting concerned that higher inflation in the U.S. will limit how many interest-rate cuts the Fed can deliver in the future. If we take the December and January Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, inflation in the U.S. is running at 4.4% per annum!
As for this economist, I don’t buy it yet. I’m still stuck on deflation. I see housing prices falling, stock market prices falling, and costs of goods and services falling (especially if they can be imported from Asia). The only thing I see rising is oil prices, and oil prices make up very little of the core CPI.
The most important statement I saw yesterday came out of the Fed:
It sees “further intensification of the housing market correction, tighter credit conditions…ongoing turmoil in financial markets and higher oil prices.” In plain English, I read this to say, “We are ready to drop interest rates again.”
As they might say in a movie preview: Coming this March 18… more interest-rate cuts headed your way. (March 18, 2008 is the next time the U.S. Federal Reserve meets to set its interest-rate policy.
Next Post: A Matter of TrustPrevious Post: Still Plenty of Room for Interest-Rate Cuts
Tags: economic analysis, interest rates, Stock Market News, U.S. economy
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



