Major U.S. Economic Indicator Flashing Red
Wednesday, May 3rd, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
Yesterday I wrote about the bad news in the U.S. new home market and how new home prices actually declined 2.2% in March 2006 from a year earlier. I often write about activity in the U.S. housing market because right now it’s likely the single most delicate industry. American consumers have overextended themselves in the belief housing prices will only go higher. A big mistake.
Millions of people in the U.S. are employed in the construction industry, most of those people involved with new home building. What I’m telling my subscribers is that if the housing market in the U.S. gets any softer, the repercussions for the U.S. economy could be hugely negative.
With millions of Americans holding variable rate home loans that are costing them more every month because of higher interest rates. with millions of people who have taken interest- only loans hoping their homes will rise in price to offset future principal payments, consumers will be in big trouble if housing prices decline even marginally.
Unfortunately, I believe the stock market is telling us the future of the housing market in the U.S. is very poor. This morning, the Dow Jones Construction Index (which includes the stocks of the biggest American home builders) fell to a new 52-week low. This all-important indicator is flashing red! The market is telling us the home builders are in trouble, which ultimately means big trouble for the economy.
It looks like the U.S. Fed has tightened too much again. If you are holding marginal real estate, you might want to seriously consider unloading it before things get worse. You may also want to delay any future property purchases. You should also look seriously at your stock portfolio to unload any stocks that are sensitive to weakness in consumer spending.
NEWSFLASH–the Canadian dollar hit a new 28-year high yesterday. This currency has been the best performing currency of any of the industrialized countries this year. I’ve often urged my American readers to make their stock purchases in Canadian dollars on the Canadian TSX exchange (Canada’s equivalent of the NYSE) so that they make money on the currency play as well. Many of the major American companies are listed on the TSX. I’m expecting the Canadian dollar to continue strong for the remainder of the year.
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Tags: interest rates, stock market, U.S. economy, U.S. housing market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



