May Be Sluggishness
Thursday, September 28th, 2006
By George Leong, B.Comm. for Profit Confidential
Consumer confidence for August fell below 100 for the first time since a 98.3 reading in November 2005. The August reading of 99.6 was well below the estimate of 102.5 and below the comparative reading of 105.5 in August 2005. But, while the decline in consumer confidence has yet to translate into weak retail sales, I get a sense that this may inevitably surface over the next few months heading into the prime-shopping season after Thanksgiving.
The reality is there may be sluggishness in the important fourth quarter shopping season. Given the high oil prices and rising rates, debt levels are expanding and will become more of a concern going forward as consumers watch their disposable income fall. A good majority of people have fixed budgets and higher financing costs will reduce money available for other purchases. We are already seeing this in the cooling housing market.
Bellwether Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE/WMT), a good indicator of the retail sector, has already blamed high fuel costs for its sluggish sales. And, unless shoppers get some renewed enthusiasm to spend, it may be a tough Q4 coming up for retailers. I expect some heavy discounting to move inventory. Good for the consumer, but this could only mean pressure on operating margins.
If you are currently holding retail stocks, here is what you may want to consider. Given the neutral sentiment towards retail stocks, you could write some covered call options to generate some premium, thus reducing the overall average cost of the stock in question.
If you are negative on the retail sector and want to short, I would suggest you reconsider unless you have a stomach for risk. If you need to short, please place appropriate stop-buys on the short position or you could find yourself sucking air should the stock stage a strong rally. A better alternative to shorting would be to buy Put options or initiate Bearish Put Spreads.
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Tags: interest rates, oil prices, retail sector, stock analysis, stock market
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George is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial, and has been involved in analyzing the stock markets for two decades where he employs both fundamental and technical analysis. His overall market timing and trading knowledge is extensive in the areas of small-cap research and option trading. George is the editor of several of Lombardi’s popular financial newsletters, including The China Letter, Special Situations, and Obscene Profits, among others. His trading advice on stocks and options is also found on his daily trading site, Daily Profits. He has written technical and fundamental columns for numerous stock market news web sites, and he is the author of Quick Wealth Options Strategy and Mastering 7 Proven Options Strategies. Prior to starting with Lombardi Financial, George was employed as a financial analyst with Globe Information Services.




