Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

Stocks Now at Critical Point in History

Monday, October 16th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

I’ve always believed the stock market to be a leading indicator of what lies ahead six to 12 months from now, based on historical events. If stocks are rallying ahead (like they did in late 1990s), good times are ahead (like we experienced from 2000 to 2005). If stocks are falling fast for no good reason (late 1920s), problems lie ahead (depression of early 1930s).

The stock market to me, especially the action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is the best leading indicator in existence today of where we are headed economically… for good times, sideways economic growth, or for bad times.

In my opinion, today’s stocks are at a critical point in history. Here’s why:

Finally, after six years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is back up where it was in early 2000. Old market watchers like me know two things could be happening here: Stocks could either be forming a huge top which will be in place for years to come or stocks could decisively break-out on the upside.

What does this mean to your wealth and the economy?

If stocks form a huge top that means, as a leading indicator, the stock market is saying the economy has topped out… the economic picture ahead is not that great… after years of consumer “economic” happiness, bad times are ahead for us.

If, on the other hand, stocks move decisively ahead (and by that, we’re talking about the Dow Jones moving close to the 13,000 level), then the stock market is telling us we’ve been worrying all this time for nothing. The market would be telling us the Fed has done a great job lowering and raising interest rates to provide steady economic growth… and that the economy will continue expanding along.

Should the first scenario develop, and that’s where my guess is, then the bear has finished the job he set out to accomplish: Make investors feel, after six long years, that the bear market in stocks is over… then take it away from them again. I’ll keep you posted on how this very important story actually plays out over the next few months.

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Profit Confidential AuthorMichael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter

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