The Bear Market’s Little Secret
Wednesday, September 13th, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
How appropriate… it’s lucky 13 today and I’m writing about the bear market’s next move in taking away investors’ money. Here’s what I’m talking about:
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the most widely followed stock market index in the world, closed at 11,498.09. At that level, the DJIA is only 1.9% away from its record high set back on January 14, 2000 (the index closed that day at 11,722.98).
Maybe the market was reacting yesterday to Goldman Sacks’ record quarterly profits. Or maybe it was the sudden drop in commodity prices that got the market roaring. A combination of both? Whatever the trigger, the fact is the DJIA is getting very close to breaking to a new high.
And here is the bear market’s little secret: It’s going to happen! Yes, almost six years after the DJIA hit a record price high, my bet is that a new high will soon be achieved by the ever popular index. Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record high in the weeks ahead.
At that point, the bear market will have achieved its goal of getting investors excited about stock and getting them back into the market again. That’s how a bear market works. Bear markets lure investors into the stock market so their money can be taken away over and over.
Logically, is their a reason why big-cap U.S. stock prices should be rising? Didn’t interest rates go up 17 times in a row? Isn’t the consumer cutting back on spending? Isn’t the housing market dead? Isn’t government and consumer debt out of control? Is deflation not a coming threat?
The word on the Street is that $1 trillion in U.S. adjustable rate residential mortgages will be reset at market interest rates in 2007. How on earth will the people paying those mortgages be able to afford their sharply higher monthly mortgage payments? Hey, I have an idea! Maybe they can bet some of their money on higher stock prices!
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Tags: bear market, Bear Market Rally, Dow Jones Industrial Average, interest rates, stock market
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



