What the Bond Market Knows That the Stock Market Doesn’t
Thursday, January 18th, 2007
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential
The U.S. bond market, after a strong rise that started mid-last year and ended in late November 2006, looks like it’s in trouble. Since December, the U.S. bond market, as measured by the popular 10- year U.S. T-bill, is down about 2%.
Hmm… The stock market is rallying, but the bond market is down. Don’t they usually move in tandem? Yes, a stock market rise is healthy when the bond market is rising with it. So, what does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?
If I had to guess, I’d say the bond market is now realizing the U.S. Fed will not be as quick to lower interest rates in 2007 as had been previously thought. The head of huge Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, said earlier this year that the U.S. Fed would lower interest rates one full percentage point this year. Given all the recent talk from Fed governors on inflation, we will need to see if the interest rate cuts many analysts are expecting actually come to fruition.
The action of the bond market in the U.S. should be another warning sign for stock market investors. Yes, there is plenty of liquidity in the financial markets that’s sending stock prices higher (as I discussed yesterday), and you can’t argue with the trend. But if interest rates are not going to decline anytime soon, the bond market and the housing market will continue to languish. I don’t think the stock market will be far behind.
Now to answer today’s question, “What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?” It’s that interest rate cuts in the U.S. won’t be coming as soon as analysts and markets originally expected.
Three-month U.S. T-bills currently yield 5.11%. They’re not sexy, they’re not growth-oriented and there’s no capital gains potential. But, a 5.11% return is a lot better than what the stock market has been returning… especially when that 5.11% is guaranteed secure by the U.S. government. Yes, boring, but right now, a very good, very safe alternative to the general stock market.
Next Post: The First Run-of-the-Mill Income Trust Shown the DoorPrevious Post: Diversify Your Portfolio With Latin American Stocks
Tags: housing market, interest rates, stock market, stock prices
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Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter



