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Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

What’s Really Happening in the New Home Sales Market

Tuesday, May 2nd, 2006
By Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential

I’m starting to believe that reporters never get a story right. In specific, I’m talking about last week’s news that March new home sales rose by 13.8%. The stock market happened to be up that day and I saw three news reports on the Internet claiming the market was up because new home sales jumped 13.8% in March (although the two had nothing to do with each other). On the financial radio station I listen to, they were playing the same tune. claiming the surprise jump in new home sales was causing the market to rally.

These reporters don’t know what they are talking about. And I guess that’s why we publish PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL daily–so you know what the financial numbers will really mean for you!

The March new homes sales report was actually a catastrophe. Yes, in March there was a 13.8% jump in new home sales. But that jump was from February. If you remember, February new homes sales were about the worst in recent history. There was no doubt March new home sales (the beginning of the spring market) would be better than February’s showing.

But here’s what the reporters failed to tell you, or maybe they just didn’t read the full report from the U.S. Commerce Department:

— The median price of a new home in the United States fell 2.2% in March 2006 from a year ago. Yes, new home prices, on an annual basis, are falling for the first time in years.

— Housing inventory, which is the number of new homes on the market, skyrocketed 25% in March of 2006 from March 2005–the biggest annual increase in 33 years.

The new home market is not looking good. And the stock market knows it. On the day the Commerce Department announced the March new home report, stocks of major American home builders (like Centex) actually gapped down in price. (Too bad reporters don’t understand how to read stock price charts.)

The news on mortgage applications is no better. The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said last week its index of mortgage applications was at the lowest point since November 2003.

What does this all mean for investors like you and me? With new home prices falling for the first time in years, higher interest rates are taking a toll on the construction market. And, with so much of the U.S. economy based on activity in the construction market, the American economy is actually starting to slow. not positive for the stocks of American corporation that fair best when consumer spending is strong.

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Profit Confidential AuthorMichael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter

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