Markets have hit a barrier in the near term. The charts are concerning, as the NASDAQ, DOW, and S&P 500 are all trading just below their respective key 50-day moving averages on neutral Relative Strength. The near-term technical view for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are bearish. The key U.S. indices are again underperforming the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) this year. The SCI is up 5.02% this year, well above the key U.S. indices.
So, before you get too ambitious and begin to chase stocks higher after dips, let me give you a piece of investment advice.
The key to successful stock picking is to understand the concept of risk management as an essential element to investing success. The reason why I want to discuss risk management is my sense that there are some of you who probably fail to incorporate some sort of risk-management strategy. If you do, that’s fantastic and you are probably sleeping well at night. If you have been delinquent in this area, be careful.
I have been involved in the markets for over 20 years. After reading the strategies of some of the world’s best traders, a commonality surfaces: the most important tenet in trading is preserving your investable capital via the use of risk management. The last thing you want to happen to you is to trade sloppily and lose your tradable capital. Instead of being a player in the exciting world of trading, you would be relegated to watching from the sidelines. But guess what? You can avoid this by following some simple strategies.
When the price of a stock trends higher, you should always think about a potential exit strategy. This does not mean liquidating profitable trades, but rather protecting your unrealized gains.
If you have a price target for your stock, you can sell the stock when it reaches that target. Alternatively, if the gains are significant, you can take profits on a portion of the position and let the remaining portion ride. For instance, if a stock rises by 100%, you can liquidate 50% of the position and let the remaining half ride. Under this simple strategy, you realize some profits, but at the same time create a zero-cost trade, as you have already recouped your initial investment. You can view the remaining half as your risk capital.
Another strategy that needs to be considered is the use of mental or physical stop-loss limits. The reality is that no one is perfect in trading. I have made mistakes and so have many of you. If you can accept this, then that’s half the battle. To protect against these mistakes, you should use stop-losses on your positions. Where to place the stop depends on how much capital you are comfortable with risking. Stops can range from three percent below the purchase price to as much as 15% or more. Setting a close stop can take you out quickly in a volatile market, like what we are witnessing at this juncture. Conversely, setting the stop too low can entail large losses.
Stops should also be used when a stock is trending higher. These stops are referred to as trailing stops and are constantly adjusted as the price of the stock rises. This can easily be done in a spreadsheet or by hand. Adapting trailing stops helps to protect your gains as the stock rises.
Some of you may be wondering if the stop-loss should be a mental or physical stop. I prefer a physical stop, as it effectively eliminates the potential influence that emotion can play when you trade. I’m going to say it here. EMOTION kills good trades and often makes you keep your losers. Keeping losers is counterproductive and will make you a viewer from the sidelines. Emotion has no role in trading.
I consider emotion the cancer of trading and it needs to be eradicated!
And for those of you familiar with options, you can employ a “Put Hedge” or “Protective Put” to help minimize the downside loss. If you own mutual funds, you can buy the appropriate index Put by determining the type of fund it is (i.e. small-cap, blue-chip, S&P 500, technology, etc.).
If you are already adhering to risk-management strategies, good for you! Otherwise, learn them and it will make you a better and more successful trader and investor.