Lombardi: Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986

Job Numbers

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases information regarding the jobs numbers, which shows how the underlying economy is performing. Also called nonfarm payrolls, since they do not include farm-related employment, the jobs numbers are one of the most important data sets for trying to understand the strength or weakness of an economy. If the jobs numbers are improving, this means more people are being employed and the economy is graining strength. If the jobs numbers are weakening, or there are outright job losses, this is an extremely troubling sign for the economy.

The Truth behind Today’s Job Numbers Report

By for Profit Confidential

Job Numbers ReportToday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor released the November job numbers report…and what a report it was!

A total of 146,000 jobs were created in November and the “official” unemployment rate in the U.S. economy decreased to 7.7% from 7.9% in October (I’m sure politicians will have a heyday with this news—telling Americans they are getting people back to work).

But the devil, dear reader, lies in the details of the job numbers report! This is a classic example of a report looking good on the surface, but when you look inside, you say, “What just happened here?”

The underemployment rate stands at 14.4%– nothing to be excited about. Unlike the official unemployment rate, the underemployment rate includes those people who have given up looking for work and or have part-time work because they can’t find full-time work. The structure of the labor market is still wounded, no matter what you hear on the mainstream media outlets.

Looking at the statistics within the job numbers report, people are finding work in low-paying sectors like retail and healthcare. There have been 140,000 jobs created in retail sector in the last three months and 53,000 of them were created in November! And, while we’re hearing or reading that the housing sector is coming back, the job numbers report says that 20,000 jobs were lost in construction in November!

Now here comes the real kicker in the job numbers report…

The average time a person is unemployed is continuously going up. In November, the average unemployed person in the U.S. economy was without a job for 40 weeks! This number has skyrocketed since … Read More

Move Aside Government Bailouts; Time to Let Capitalism Reign

By for Profit Confidential

When the financial crisis hit, U.S. government bailouts became available to many big corporations. Back then, president Obama claimed that the 500 million shares that taxpayers were investing in General Motors Company (NYSE/GM) at $33.00 a share were an investment in the future of the U.S. economy.

That is the problem with governments. They should focus on policy tools to make it easier for businesses to invest and create jobs. Picking winners and losers in a capitalist system is best left to the system itself and not government bailouts. Government bailouts protect the losers, which capitalism weeds out; these are the companies that counterproductive to the long-term health of the U.S. economy.

The government bailout of GM allowed the company to come out of bankruptcy and forget the financial crisis ever happened. Since taxpayers paid $33.00 a share for GM, the stock is now down to roughly $19.50!

The loss to taxpayers—if the shares were sold—is roughly $16.6 billion!

While taxpayers are sitting on losses, there are further benefits that GM was privy to that would never be available to anyone else if capitalism ruled the day and government bailouts weren’t allowed to interfere.

When a company declares bankruptcy, its debts are removed from its balance sheet, but so are the previous years’ losses, which can be used against future gains in order for the corporation not to pay taxes.

However, President Obama allowed GM to keep its past losses to the tune of $45.0 billion, which is a form of another government bailout. (Source: Investor’s Business Daily, July 3, 2012.) This government bailout tax advantage is worth another … Read More

Deteriorating June U.S. Job Numbers Point to Recession

By for Profit Confidential

Deteriorating June U.S. Job Numbers

For June, the U.S. created 80,000 new jobs, well below economists’ forecasts of 100,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.2%. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 6, 2012.)

When looking within the U.S. job numbers for June, of the 80,000 new jobs created, 25,000 were in temporary work and 9,000 were in wholesale trade. This means at least 42% of the job numbers are in low-paying sectors of the economy.

The jobs numbers had no help from the government sector, which lost another 4,000 jobs in the month of June.

Many of the job numbers created over the last year were in low-paying sectors of the economy; year-over-year average hourly earnings were up only two percent. When inflation is taken into consideration, this two-percent gain is completely wiped out.

Here are some important facts you should be aware of, dear reader:

In the first quarter of 2012, the job numbers for the U.S. economy went up by an average of 226,000 per month.

For the second quarter of 2012, the job numbers gained an average of only 75,000 per month.

Today’s job numbers report is proof that U.S. employment is on a downward trajectory, which points to an economic slowdown. This will eventually lead to a recession later this year or in early 2013, as pressure from the recession in Europe and the economic slowdown in China yields its full negative impact on the U.S. economy.

U6, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a broader measure of the unemployment rate, because it takes into account discouraged people who are still looking for work, as well … Read More

Job Cuts at State and Municipal Levels Pick up Steam

By for Profit Confidential

Job CutsI have been arguing in these pages for months now that the continued contraction among states and municipalities in the U.S. would keep the unemployment rate high in this country.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the government sector—that is municipal, state and federal governments—has cut 586,000 jobs since December 2008. If the same amount of people would be working in government today, the official U.S. unemployment rate would be 7.1% instead of 8.1% (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2012).

If the unemployment rate was 7.1% today, the Federal Reserve would be talking about how successful its policies have been, instead of being concerned that the U.S. economy continues to weaken.

The other disturbing trend is that the number of jobs the government sector has lost over the last six months is picking up steam and shows no signs of letting up. With large budget deficits, municipalities and states will continue to cut jobs to balance their budgets.

This trend of greater job losses presents another challenge to lawmakers in the White House. Yes, the job numbers continue to deteriorate in the government sector, but the focus cannot be on the unemployment rate in that particular sector.

The focus instead must be on the private sector. The only area left within the economy that can pick up the slack and hire these laid-off government workers is the private sector.

Unfortunately, the job numbers in the private sector continue to decline as well, making the unemployment rate even worse. And with an election not far off, the focus really is on campaigning, as opposed to dealing with … Read More

May U.S. Jobs Numbers; Proof
Real Trouble Just Beginning

By for Profit Confidential

job numbersYou’ve heard the news…

Economists (except for this one) were looking for 150,000 jobs to be created in the U.S. in May, which would have reflected moderate economic growth. Instead, only 69,000 jobs were created in the month of May (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)—a huge job numbers miss

Worse still, April’s original 115,000 new job numbers were revised lower to just 77,000 jobs created!

The unemployment rate moved up slightly from 8.1% to 8.2%. Many industries reported weak job numbers for May, including the government sector, which I’ve been warning will continue to drag the job numbers lower. Governments in the U.S. laid off another 13,000 employees in the month of May. (In these pages, I have written extensively about job losses at the state level; see: Deeper Cuts Are on Tap for U.S. Municipalities in Distress.)

A close look at the job numbers report for May paints a picture of more of the same; more low-paying jobs created, while higher-paying jobs disappear. For example, higher-paying specialty trade contractor jobs declined by 18,000, while civil engineers lost 11,000 jobs.

Not promising for wage growth and consumer spending when the job numbers are so weak.

U6, often referred to as the “underemployment rate,” as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a broader measure of the unemployment rate, because it takes into account discouraged people who have given up looking for work, as well as those working part-time who want full-time work. The U6 unemployment rate rose to 14.8% in May from April’s 14.5%.

An underemployment rate of 14.8% is very high and definitely not reflective of an … Read More

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The Truth behind Today’s Job Numbers Report

By for Profit Confidential

Job Numbers ReportToday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor released the November job numbers report…and what a report it was!

A total of 146,000 jobs were created in November and the “official” unemployment rate in the U.S. economy decreased to 7.7% from 7.9% in October (I’m sure politicians will have a heyday with this news—telling Americans they are getting people back to work).

But the devil, dear reader, lies in the details of the job numbers report! This is a classic example of a report looking good on the surface, but when you look inside, you say, “What just happened here?”

The underemployment rate stands at 14.4%– nothing to be excited about. Unlike the official unemployment rate, the underemployment rate includes those people who have given up looking for work and or have part-time work because they can’t find full-time work. The structure of the labor market is still wounded, no matter what you hear on the mainstream media outlets.

Looking at the statistics within the job numbers report, people are finding work in low-paying sectors like retail and healthcare. There have been 140,000 jobs created in retail sector in the last three months and 53,000 of them were created in November! And, while we’re hearing or reading that the housing sector is coming back, the job numbers report says that 20,000 jobs were lost in construction in November!

Now here comes the real kicker in the job numbers report…

The average time a person is unemployed is continuously going up. In November, the average unemployed person in the U.S. economy was without a job for 40 weeks! This number has skyrocketed since … Read More

Move Aside Government Bailouts; Time to Let Capitalism Reign

By for Profit Confidential

When the financial crisis hit, U.S. government bailouts became available to many big corporations. Back then, president Obama claimed that the 500 million shares that taxpayers were investing in General Motors Company (NYSE/GM) at $33.00 a share were an investment in the future of the U.S. economy.

That is the problem with governments. They should focus on policy tools to make it easier for businesses to invest and create jobs. Picking winners and losers in a capitalist system is best left to the system itself and not government bailouts. Government bailouts protect the losers, which capitalism weeds out; these are the companies that counterproductive to the long-term health of the U.S. economy.

The government bailout of GM allowed the company to come out of bankruptcy and forget the financial crisis ever happened. Since taxpayers paid $33.00 a share for GM, the stock is now down to roughly $19.50!

The loss to taxpayers—if the shares were sold—is roughly $16.6 billion!

While taxpayers are sitting on losses, there are further benefits that GM was privy to that would never be available to anyone else if capitalism ruled the day and government bailouts weren’t allowed to interfere.

When a company declares bankruptcy, its debts are removed from its balance sheet, but so are the previous years’ losses, which can be used against future gains in order for the corporation not to pay taxes.

However, President Obama allowed GM to keep its past losses to the tune of $45.0 billion, which is a form of another government bailout. (Source: Investor’s Business Daily, July 3, 2012.) This government bailout tax advantage is worth another … Read More

Deteriorating June U.S. Job Numbers Point to Recession

By for Profit Confidential

Deteriorating June U.S. Job Numbers

For June, the U.S. created 80,000 new jobs, well below economists’ forecasts of 100,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.2%. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 6, 2012.)

When looking within the U.S. job numbers for June, of the 80,000 new jobs created, 25,000 were in temporary work and 9,000 were in wholesale trade. This means at least 42% of the job numbers are in low-paying sectors of the economy.

The jobs numbers had no help from the government sector, which lost another 4,000 jobs in the month of June.

Many of the job numbers created over the last year were in low-paying sectors of the economy; year-over-year average hourly earnings were up only two percent. When inflation is taken into consideration, this two-percent gain is completely wiped out.

Here are some important facts you should be aware of, dear reader:

In the first quarter of 2012, the job numbers for the U.S. economy went up by an average of 226,000 per month.

For the second quarter of 2012, the job numbers gained an average of only 75,000 per month.

Today’s job numbers report is proof that U.S. employment is on a downward trajectory, which points to an economic slowdown. This will eventually lead to a recession later this year or in early 2013, as pressure from the recession in Europe and the economic slowdown in China yields its full negative impact on the U.S. economy.

U6, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a broader measure of the unemployment rate, because it takes into account discouraged people who are still looking for work, as well … Read More

Job Cuts at State and Municipal Levels Pick up Steam

By for Profit Confidential

Job CutsI have been arguing in these pages for months now that the continued contraction among states and municipalities in the U.S. would keep the unemployment rate high in this country.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the government sector—that is municipal, state and federal governments—has cut 586,000 jobs since December 2008. If the same amount of people would be working in government today, the official U.S. unemployment rate would be 7.1% instead of 8.1% (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2012).

If the unemployment rate was 7.1% today, the Federal Reserve would be talking about how successful its policies have been, instead of being concerned that the U.S. economy continues to weaken.

The other disturbing trend is that the number of jobs the government sector has lost over the last six months is picking up steam and shows no signs of letting up. With large budget deficits, municipalities and states will continue to cut jobs to balance their budgets.

This trend of greater job losses presents another challenge to lawmakers in the White House. Yes, the job numbers continue to deteriorate in the government sector, but the focus cannot be on the unemployment rate in that particular sector.

The focus instead must be on the private sector. The only area left within the economy that can pick up the slack and hire these laid-off government workers is the private sector.

Unfortunately, the job numbers in the private sector continue to decline as well, making the unemployment rate even worse. And with an election not far off, the focus really is on campaigning, as opposed to dealing with … Read More

May U.S. Jobs Numbers; Proof
Real Trouble Just Beginning

By for Profit Confidential

job numbersYou’ve heard the news…

Economists (except for this one) were looking for 150,000 jobs to be created in the U.S. in May, which would have reflected moderate economic growth. Instead, only 69,000 jobs were created in the month of May (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)—a huge job numbers miss

Worse still, April’s original 115,000 new job numbers were revised lower to just 77,000 jobs created!

The unemployment rate moved up slightly from 8.1% to 8.2%. Many industries reported weak job numbers for May, including the government sector, which I’ve been warning will continue to drag the job numbers lower. Governments in the U.S. laid off another 13,000 employees in the month of May. (In these pages, I have written extensively about job losses at the state level; see: Deeper Cuts Are on Tap for U.S. Municipalities in Distress.)

A close look at the job numbers report for May paints a picture of more of the same; more low-paying jobs created, while higher-paying jobs disappear. For example, higher-paying specialty trade contractor jobs declined by 18,000, while civil engineers lost 11,000 jobs.

Not promising for wage growth and consumer spending when the job numbers are so weak.

U6, often referred to as the “underemployment rate,” as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a broader measure of the unemployment rate, because it takes into account discouraged people who have given up looking for work, as well as those working part-time who want full-time work. The U6 unemployment rate rose to 14.8% in May from April’s 14.5%.

An underemployment rate of 14.8% is very high and definitely not reflective of an … Read More

Public Employees Take Governments
to Court—We Want Our Pensions!

By for Profit Confidential

budget deficitThe battle to tighten budget deficits has now reached a new level. Public employees are pushing back by taking their employers—the cities—to court.

In San Jose, California, the public unions are taking the city to court to contest the city’s attempt to force the public employees to either contribute more of their paycheck toward their pension or accept a reduced retirement pension plan (source: Reuters, May 8, 2012).

There are eight similar lawsuits nationwide!

I have discussed most of these troubled cities in these pages before the court dates were set. You know what I’m going to say now; this is just the beginning.

The San Jose Police Officers’ Association is ready to fight for years if it has to, to protect what it feels it’s entitled to for its service.

The City of San Jose attempted to explain to the police officers and the other city unions that, since the recession hit in 2008, the pension fund has lost money on its investments, which has widened the budget deficit. On top of this, with home prices falling and fewer people working, tax revenues to the city have declined, further exacerbating budget deficits.

And with interest rates near zero, it is proving very difficult for pension fund to generate any interest income to help fill the budget deficit hole.

The City of San Jose has to make cuts somewhere to make up the budget deficit. It has chosen to increase pension contribution rates instead of cutting basic services. Of course, if the battle in court continues, the city may have no choice but to cut essential services for the citizens … Read More

Expect Pathetic Job Numbers for May As Well

By for Profit Confidential

A sign of things to come…

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released a report last week illustrating that, for the month of April 2012, planned firings at corporations in America rose 11% from a year ago. From the month of March, planned firings were up 7.1%.

The report also expressed the opinion of its authors that, at the current level of demand for goods and services, companies in the U.S. don’t require additional workers to meet output; very bad news for May’s upcoming job numbers report.

Sure, this means the U.S. economy is weak. Without sufficient demand from the consumer, which is 70% of GDP, companies will not hire new workers, which is going to stall jobs growth. This is a bad sign that May’s job numbers could be worse than April’s.

This is further confirmed by the fact that the biggest sector of the economy that cut the most jobs thus far in 2012 has been the consumer products companies. If consumers are not spending, then the companies that make and sell consumer products will not lead jobs growth, but instead lead in layoffs.

The report also highlighted that layoffs at the government level—led by education—continued to increase, which is something I’ve been talking about in these pages.

As municipalities continue to cut the expenses to meet their budget deficits, jobs growth will be nonexistent at the state and municipal levels. And the monthly job numbers will continue to display the effect of this reality.

Challenger always prefaces its report by saying that a corporation’s intention to lay off will change if the economy improves, which will lead … Read More

What They Didn’t Tell You in
Friday’s Job Numbers Report

By for Profit Confidential

economic slowdownGreat news on the unemployment numbers last week? That was the message from many politicians and the popular media on Friday. But let’s take our usual closer look…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the U.S. created 243,000 jobs in January 2012, causing the unemployment rate to fall to a level not seen since February 2009: 8.3%.

The job numbers came in better than estimates; the best one-month showing since April 2011.

The important part was that private sector job numbers jumped 257,000—this is where the job numbers need to come from for an economy to truly recover and grow. Government payrolls fell by 14,000 (more on that in my personal notes section today).

And the job numbers for the previous two months were revised higher, adding an additional 60,000 jobs to the U.S. economy…more good news.

In an economy that will take every bit of good news it can get, Friday’s job numbers report was obviously welcome. But—and there is always a “but”—we may not like what we see if we look closer at the job numbers.

Sure, job creation has helped the unemployment rate drop to 8.3%, but the drop is aided significantly by the fact that many Americans have simply given up looking for work. Those who have stopped looking for work are removed from the job numbers—and that’s 1.1 million people in January alone!

“U6,” as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a broader measure of the unemployment rate, because it takes into account discouraged people as well as those working part-time who want full-time work. The U6, also more commonly … Read More

There Once Was a Bank…

By for Profit Confidential

eurozoneBack in 1473, more than 500 years ago, a bank was born in Bologna, Italy. Through the centuries, the bank grew and grew its base. It would eventually absorb the nine largest banks in Italy and “combine” its assets with a large German bank.

Today, the “little” bank that has roots dating back 500 years operates in 22 European countries, has 9,500 branches and employs 160,000 people. Comparatively, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/BAC) has less than 6,000 branches worldwide. With total assets of about $1.3 trillion, UniCredit S.p.A (IT/UCG), the bank I’m talking about, is the 14th largest bank in Europe.

Why bring up an Italian bank today? To give you an idea of just how terrible things are in the eurozone. UniCredit withstood much during its 500-year history. What it is facing in eurozone today could be its darkest hours.

The debt crisis in the eurozone has become a banking crisis. There is no confidence in eurozone banking sector. Rumors of the breakup of the euro currency are sending the stock prices of major eurozone banks into a tailspin. As I reported yesterday, I believe the eurozone is already in a recession (see: Official Numbers in…2012 Not Looking Good).

Dear reader; please remember back to 2008 and Bear Sterns. This financial institution didn’t fail because it lacked capital. Bear Sterns failed because of a lack of investor confidence in the institution. This is what will happen to the big eurozone banks.

Yesterday, to everyone’s surprise, UniCredit announced that it would need to raise capital through the issuance of stock. The bank said it would sell stock at Read More

The Hidden Bad News in the November
U.S. Job Numbers Report

By for Profit Confidential

This morning, the Labor Department announced job creation of 120,000 in theU.S. in November and the unemployment rate has suddenly fallen to 8.6%. Sound like good news? Actually, when we look closer, it’s actually devastating job creation news.

The Job Numbers Report,
Making Money Off It

By for Profit Confidential

While all eyes this morning will be on the U.S. employment numbers, investors are looking at the wrong job numbers. It’s common sense that, as the U.S. economy improves and as U.S. corporations improve earnings, there will be more hires. It’s also a fact that the job numbers are skewed, because so many Americans have given up looking for work.

Not All “Birds” Fly West

By for Profit Confidential

Although there are job shortages in western Canada, Canadians in other provinces are less willing to move to western provinces, even if they are currently unemployed. But, if they were more flexible, the overall Canadian economy would be much stronger and more resilient.

On the other hand, I just moved a measly 50 kilometers, and let me tell you, it was a nightmare. If I had to move 2,700 kilometers, which is roughly the distance from Toronto to Calgary, I, personally, would not survive.

Apparently, the promise of a job is not a good enough reason for Canadians to leave their old homes, family, and friends. There are other things to consider, such as costs of living, quality of life, traffic, etc. There are also costs of moving to consider.

I’m sure anyone who had to organize a move during their adult lives will agree–movers cost too much money, and more often than not, they are at the very epicenter of the moving nightmare. Perhaps this is why there exists a permanent gap between the unemployment rate on the national level and unemployment rates on provincial levels.

To illustrate, in June, the country’s national unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, which is a 32-year low. However, the discrepancies on regional levels are huge. For example, in south- central Manitoba, March unemployment rate was an unbelievable 2.2%. In contrast, in north-western Ontario, the unemployment rate for the same period was 70% higher, or 8.3%.

Canadians’ reluctance to move impacts the overall economy more than people think. If fewer people gain employment, it means that fewer of them pay income taxes. And, without … Read More

I’d Say Young People Should Stay in School

By for Profit Confidential

As of late, Canada has become a Mecca for blue collar workers. The culprit is the employment explosion in the oil and gas, mining and construction industries. As a result, young men with only a high school education have been enjoying a rising rate in weekly earnings. In contrast, their university educated counterparts seemed to have thrown their student loans out the window. In the past five years, university grads saw their pay checks mostly shrink, not increase.

Apparently, according to a survey of Canadian workforce conducted last year, men between the ages of 25 and 34, having only a high school diploma, reported an increase in average weekly earnings of 5.2% in the past five years. An even more intriguing number was the one for young men without a high school diploma, who saw their wages rise 7.8% in the same period. All the while, in spite of what their parents might have told them, university graduates reported their average salaries shrink 2.8%.

Now, before kids today take these statistics as a ringing endorsement to drop out of school and not to pursue university degrees, there are two things they must also consider. First of all, whatever goes up must come down. The same applies to anything experiencing a steep growth curve, including blue-collars’ earnings growth. At this rate, similar earnings growth is hardly sustainable. The demand is likely to reach the critical mass in the near future, which, once it implodes, will drive the earnings growth down.

Then, although university grads saw their wages shrink, they still earned at least CDN$14,500 more than their high school dropout counterparts. … Read More

Cutting Jobs–A Corporate Reality

By for Profit Confidential

How do you inflate earnings? You cut jobs and lots of them. Back during the bear market years from 2000 to 2003, companies faced with declining revenues or flat growth and margin pressures did what was the easiest — they axed jobs and sent employees packing.

 In my view, cutting jobs might help to improve margins and earnings, pleasing Wall Street and helping to improve shareholder value. But, at the end of the day, cutting jobs also helps to disguise some potentially deep-rooted issues. Think of it this way: when a company is steadily growing its revenues, they hire more workers to deal with the extra business. This is the way it should be.

 But, when companies face weak revenue growth, it should automatically suggest an underlying concern. Simply, the company is not growing its business adequately and, in my books, this is bad news. I don’t want to buy a company characterized by slow revenue growth.

 A perfect example is the U.S. auto industry. Faced with rising imports from Japan, U.S. automakers have been losing market- share. Revenues, while growing, have been lackluster. The end result is pressure on margins and you know Wall Street does not want to see this. So, guess what they do? Cut jobs!

 In November, General Motors Corp. (NYSE/GM) said it would restructure its operations by shutting down 12 plants in North America and handing out 30,000 pink slips. Now, these are real jobs that will be wiped out. You knew that it was only a matter of time before the other U.S. automakers caught on and mirrored the actions of General Motors.

 Just … Read More

400,000 Unemployed… But It’s Not “Overwhelming”

By for Profit Confidential

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported this week that Hurricane Katrina will ultimately result in 400,000 jobs lost and a slowdown in economic growth by as much as 1%.

A quarter of a million people have been evacuated from their hometowns, and they may not be able to return to their houses for weeks or even months. Now, for most of them and many others, when they return home, their jobs will no longer exist.

But there’s no need to worry, because the CBO has these reassuring words: The impact of Hurricane Katrina to the U.S. economy is “significant but not overwhelming.”

Am I the only one who finds this statement shocking and vastly short-sighted?

On an individual level, thousands are feared dead and the economic and psychological effects of the recent storm to the survivors are staggering… we’re going to see record defaults on existing debt, record levels of insolvency, poverty, hunger, and sickness — all of which cost the rest of the country big money.

On a business level, we’ve got work stoppages, production ground to a halt, higher insurance premiums, massive layoffs and cutbacks, and we’ll see bankruptcies in the thousands — all of which cut into our GDP and our country’s revenue from taxes. And this doesn’t factor in the estimated $30 billion that insurance companies will have to pay out for insured losses.

At the city and state levels, we have unprecedented bills for clean- up and rebuilding, threats of toxic water supply, mountains of missing and damaged infrastructure, and no property taxes being paid to help foot the bill.

At the federal level, in … Read More

The Great Crash of 2014

A stock market crash bigger than what happened in 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.

In fact, we are predicting this crash will be even more devastating than the 1929 crash…

…the ramifications of which will hit the economy and Americans deeper than anything we’ve ever seen.

Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about this, we’ve just produced a video to warn investors called, “The Great Crash of 2014.”

In case you are not familiar with our research work on the stock market:

In late 2001, in the aftermath of 9/11, we told our clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after we made that call.

We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish on gold.

Throughout 2002, we urged our readers to buy gold stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.

In November of 2007, we started begging our customers to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards, it was widely recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.

We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009.

And in March of 2009, we started telling our readers to jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175% from when we made that call in 2009 to today.

Many investors will find our next prediction hard to believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.

Even if you don’t own stocks, what’s about to happen will affect you!

I urge you to be among the first to get our next major prediction.
See it here now in this just-released alarming video.

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