Lombardi: Expert Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis Since 1986
Stock Market Commentary & Forecasts, Financial & Economic Analysis

Welcome to Profit Confidential • Thursday, May 24, 2012

Archive for the ‘large-cap stocks’ Category


New Record Highs on the Stock
Market—Who’s Hitting Them?

It would be so wonderful if the sovereign debt crisis in Europe was not at hand. It never pays to live in a fantasy world, but corporate earnings are coming in so good that the market would be a lot higher if we didn’t have to worry about country debt. Read on to find out who's reporting the record highs.It would be so wonderful if the sovereign debt crisis in Europe was not at hand. It never pays to live in a fantasy world, but corporate earnings are coming in so good that the market would be a lot higher if we didn’t have to worry about country debt.

According to a report by Bloomberg, of the 98 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings since July 11, about 85% have exceeded analyst estimates. That’s a big deal and it’s a testament to the jobless economic recovery we seem to be experiencing. A lower dollar certainly is a big help to domestic corporate earnings and so are faster growing economies in emerging markets. That’s the real power of American large-cap multinationals; they have a strong ability to translate international operations into profits at home.

If you feel a certain stock market malaise right now, you have a lot of company. Investor sentiment is positive, but only slightly so. Everyone is worried about the future with the exception of large corporations. When subprime mortgages caused the recession, big companies were shaken by the enormous erosion of their share prices. It really seemed that the sky was falling. After the stock market reckoning, the recession really did cause management at big companies to fundamentally change their view of the world. The age of austerity took over as the new management credo and, subsequently, already-lean enterprises honed their expenses to the max. Now we’re seeing the effort of all that austerity in earnings results that are just plain excellent in relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

All kinds of large-cap companies are hitting record and new 52-weeks highs on the stock market right now. Baxter International Inc. (NYSE/BAX) just reported very good financial results that beat consensus and the company increased its guidance for the year. The stock is trading right at a new 52-high and doesn’t look expensive. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE/CL) just hit a new record price on the stock market. This company hasn’t reported yet, but the shares don’t look pricey, and the current yield on the stock is 2.6%. Then there’s International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE/IBM), which reported strong second-quarter results based on its services business. This stock is trading at a new all-time high of $185.00 per share and is up a solid 50% since the beginning of September.

When a company like Bloomberg does a survey saying that 85% of S&P 500 companies have so far beaten consensus estimates, I believe it. There is a lot of corporate strength out there, but not retail strength. The trickledown effect will take much longer to pan out.

There’s no real momentum in the stock market, but earnings are on the right track. I see the broader market ticking higher over the near term unless the sovereign debt issue messes with confidence.


Big, Brand-name Company Takeovers
Back in Style—What’s Old Is New Again

What’s old is new again: why you might want to consider large-caps as moneymaking investments.There are so many companies that you don’t think about investing in, even though it’s likely that you use their products on a regular basis. One such company is The Clorox Company (NYSE/CLX), which is now in the sights of billionaire Carl Icahn. This financier is Clorox’s largest shareholder and he recently initiated a takeover offer for the consumer products company for $80.00 a share. He’s also asking the company’s management to shop itself to the marketplace for a higher bid.

We all know the brand name “Clorox” for its bleach, but what you might not know is that the company also owns other well-known brands like “Kingsford” charcoal, “Glad” garbage bags, “Brita” water containers, “Burt’s Bees” products, “Pine Sol” cleaner…and the list goes on.

Like most large-cap companies, Clorox really hasn’t done much on the stock market over the last 10 years except pay a solid dividend. The stock is currently trading around $75.00 a share with a yield of approximately 3.3%. In year 2000, Clorox’s dividend was $0.82 per share, but it was increased every year to its current level at around $2.10 per share.

If you pull up a long-term stock chart on the company, you’ll find that it was a huge wealth creator for shareholders. From 1995 to 2000, the stock accelerated from $15.00 a share (split adjusted) to over $60.00. That’s an impressive performance for any large-cap stock. At its current level of $75.00 per share, the stock is trading at its all-time high, and one could argue that the company’s share price performance and dividend payments have been very good.

Icahn sees the value in this business and this is why he is trying to buy it for about $11.0 billion. Or rather, he’s trying to get someone else to buy it for more money, thereby generating a nice capital gain for himself.

I think we’re going to see a lot more of these kinds of takeovers for the simple reason that there isn’t a lot of growth in the economy. Therefore, the only way for a big investor to generate any meaningful return on investment is to go out and purchase entire companies. This is what Warren Buffett does and the universe of good businesses that are available to be bought is actually quite small.

Individual investors can’t go out and purchase businesses whole, but they can buy shares in such public companies. I don’t think an equity portfolio should be without several names of well-established, dividend-paying companies. As I see large-caps outperforming over the coming quarters, my research in this sector highlights the impressive capital gains and income one can earn by owning the right large-cap companies.

Stocks are inherently volatile securities. They usually aren’t as prone to the same kind of price swings as commodities, but they have their moments. Institutional investors are going to keep migrating their investment dollars to large-cap, dividend-paying stocks, because they can’t get investment returns anywhere else. It might not be exciting, but it’s likely we’re going to hear a lot more about companies like Clorox over the coming quarters. What’s old is new again and there’s money to be made in these names.


On the Lookout for Investment Packages

So far, I’ve spent over 10 years on a full-time basis looking for attractive stocks in which to invest. Previous to that, I followed the stock market for many years on a daily basis without getting paid to do so.

During this time, I’ve learned a tremendous amount about the equity markets, investor psychology, and about business. I’ve seen a lot of stocks go up and down, but I’ve found that the best wealth creating stocks tend to offer investors the good “package,” rather than any one catalyst for investment.

I know that you can make just as much money from a large-cap stock than you can with a small-cap stock. A company may not be growing at the fastest rate, but its valuation could be attractive and it’s what investors are interested in at the time.

So, when looking for the most attractive stocks in the marketplace, consider if it offers a “package.” Many of the companies we’ve talked about in this column offered great packages. Some include: VCA Antech Incorporated (NASDAQ/WOOF), Luxottica Group S.p.A. (NYSE/LUX), Huron Consulting Group Incorporated (NASDAQ/HURN), LJ International Incorporated (NASDAQ/JADE), Omniture Incorporated (NASDAQ/OMTR), and Zumiez Incorporated (NASDAQ/ZUMZ) to name just a few. All these companies offered more than one reason to buy the stock.

Perhaps it has to do with great industry fundamentals, strong pricing power combined with a new technology, the right capitalization, the right valuation, and the right investor sentiment. All kinds of factors affect how a stock performs, so as the investors, you need to consider as many of those factors as possible before you invest.

If you spend enough time looking for good opportunities in the stock market, my experience suggests that the most attractive stocks tend to jump out at you when they come across your desk. The vast majority of these stocks tend to offer an attractive “package” to the investment community. There isn’t just one reason to buy the stock.

If you spend the time looking for good stocks in the marketplace, I guarantee that you’ll find these kinds of opportunities. Taking the time to look through the stock market on a daily basis is the best thing you can do to improve your investment returns. You can’t be a great golfer without playing every day.


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