After All the Money Printing: How Things Will Look Two Years Out

By

On December 12, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced further quantitative easing. Aside from its $40.0-billion-a-month mortgaged-backed securities program, starting in January, it will buy $45.0 billion a month in U.S. Treasury securities. Why? “…to support a stronger economic recovery,” according to the central bank. (Source: Federal Reserve, December 12, 2012.)

While announcing more quantitative easing in the U.S. economy, our central bank also promised that it will continue to keep interest rates artificially low (near zero) until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%. Its projection for inflation for two years out is 2.5% per annum.

The creation of new money and keeping interest rates artificially low isn’t anything new. This has been happening in the U.S. economy since 2008, but there are no specific dates for when the “money printing” will end. Hence, I get the impression that quantitative easing may go on for a long, long time!

The U.S. unemployment rate in November stood at 7.7%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 13, 2012.) This means that if the Fed desires an unemployment rate in the U.S. economy of 6.5% before it stops printing new money, the unemployment rate has to decline by 15.5%.

Looking back at recent unemployment rate numbers, if the rate of decline stays the same as in recent history, it will take roughly 15 months for the U.S. unemployment rate to reach 6.5%—if there are no hiccups in the economy.

Inflation, according to the consumer price index (CPI), is running at 2.2%. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 15, 2012.) Unfortunately, as we have established in these pages, the current CPI calculation doesn’t capture the real inflation rate that U.S. consumers experience. The real inflation rate, if I had to estimate, is above five percent per annum.

And if the Fed prints for another 15 months, at $85.0 billion a month, the Federal Reserve will create $1.275 trillion in money out of thin air. Inflation rising at a real rate of five percent, while the Fed prints another $1.275 trillion in paper money, is a real problem. Rising inflation and more money in the system, as we have already experienced, results in a decline in purchasing power!

So let’s look two years out. Two years from now, the U.S. unemployment rate falls to 6.5%. At the same time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has mushroomed to $4.0 trillion. Under such a scenario, I see real inflation being a real problem. As inflation rises, gold bullion prices will rise; as inflation rises, the buying power of the U.S. dollar declines; as inflation rises, interest rates rise.

Our economy can’t handle higher interest rates; our housing market cannot handle higher interest rates—even two years out. At this point, you can see why I am more pessimistic than optimistic about the future.

Where the Market Stands; Where It’s Headed:

Enjoy the traditional Christmas rally, dear reader. It won’t last. I see many signs that 2013 will be a challenging year for the U.S. economy, a challenging year for the stock market. In fact, I believe 2013 will be a major reversal year for the market.

What He Said:

“I’ve been pushing gold bullion and gold shares for over a year now. Back in January 2002, I personally started buying gold shares.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, December 13, 2002. Gold bullion was trading under $300.00 an ounce when Michael first started recommending gold-related investments.

Retire on one hot stock

Presenting Our Top Stock Pick for 2015!

It is one of the leading companies in its industry. With quarterly revenue of $800 million and growing this company is generating over $300 million every three months in free cash flow!

"A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors" is yours FREE when you opt-in to get our daily e-letter Profit Confidential. With Profit Confidential you are receiving the opinions and commentaries of seasoned financial analysts and economists. We analyze the actions of the stock market, precious metals, interest rates, real estate, and other investments so we can tell you what we believe today's financial news will mean for you tomorrow!

Combined, we have over 100 years' experience in analyzing various investment markets. Our analysts include MBAs, BAs, B.Comms, P.Engs, MAs, LLBs...and most importantly, years of experience investing and managing our own money successfully!

To opt-in to our FREE e-letter Profit Confidential and to get your FREE report, "A Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors," enter your e-mail address in the box below. You can unsubscribe at any time.

We hate spam as much as you do. Check out our Privacy Policy.

About the Author | Browse Michael Lombardi's Articles

Michael Lombardi founded investor research firm Lombardi Publishing Corporation in 1986. Michael is also the founder of the popular daily e-letter, Profit Confidential, where readers get the benefit of Michael’s years of experience with the stock market, real estate, economic forecasting, precious metals, and various businesses. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Michael has authored more than thousands of articles on investment and money management and is the author of several successful investing publications,... Read Full Bio »

Related Articles

Video: Here is why you should be Bullish on Gold | By: Michael Lombardi

Poll

Would you vote for Donald Trump if he was the Republican Nominee?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...
Profit Confidential
×
54.87.62.18
From: Michael Lombardi, MBA
Subject: Gold: The Stock Contrarian Investors’ Best Play of the Decade

Read this message