In the U.S. economy right now, consumer confidence is bleak and consumer spending is dismal, meaning the idea that we are experiencing economic growth is simply far-fetched.
Consumer confidence in the month of December continued its decline from the previous month. It fell to 65.1 in December from 71.5 in November—a decline of almost nine percent. (Source: The Conference Board, December 27, 2012.) Why did consumer confidence fall so much in December? Of those who replied to the consumer confidence survey, 18.7% of them expect their income to decline, 27.3% believe there will be fewer jobs for them, and 35.6% believe it is difficult to get a job.
If consumer confidence is low, U.S. consumers will spend less. Generally, November and December of every year tend to be good months for retailers because of the holiday season. During this time, consumers spend and buy goods. But this year, retail sales were far from robust.
According to MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse, from October 28 to December 24, holiday-related sales only rose by 0.7%. During the same period last year, the sales rose two percent. (Source: The Globe and Mail, December 26, 2012.) This is significant, because retailers generate about 30% of their annual sales during the holiday season, and the majority of the time, this same period accounts for 50% of their corporate earnings.
ShopperTrak reported retail sales declined 2.5% and foot traffic decreased by 3.3% during the week ending December 22, 2012 compared to last year. (Source: ShopperTrak press release, December 27, 2012.)
Right now, consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is very weak. As I have been harping about in these pages, if we want economic growth, consumer confidence must increase. But consumer confidence is stuck, because unemployment is high, real incomes are falling, and personal savings are declining.
Where the Market Stands; Where It’s Headed:
I give very little credence to yesterday’s up-shot day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The market’s reaction to the pathetic fiscal cliff deal was one of relief that spending was cut. I expect 2013 to be a very difficult year for the stock market.
What He Said:
“Interest rates at a 40-year low: The Fed has made borrowing as easy as possible, resulting in a huge appetite for loans and mortgages. We are nearing a debt crisis.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, April 8, 2004. Michael first started warning about the negative repercussions of then-Fed Governor Greenspan’s low interest rate policy when the Fed first dropped interest rates to one percent in 2004.
Consumer Confidence Falls Another 9% in December was last modified: January 3rd, 2013 by Michael Lombardi, MBA
Michael Lombardi founded investor research firm Lombardi Publishing Corporation in 1986. Michael is also the founder of the popular daily e-letter, Profit Confidential, where readers get the benefit of Michael’s years of experience with the stock market, real estate, economic forecasting, precious metals, and various businesses. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Michael has authored more than thousands of articles on investment and money management and is the author of several successful investing publications,... Read Full Bio »
Forecasts Aug. 30, 2015
Immediate term outlook:
The bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009, extended because of unprecedented central bank money printing, is coming to an end. Gold bullion is up $1,000 an ounce since we first recommended it in 2002 and we are still bullish on the physical metal.
Short-to-medium term outlook:
World economies are entering their slowest growth period since 2009. The Chinese economy grew last year at its slowest pace in 24 years. Japan is in recession. The eurozone is in depression. With almost half the S&P 500 companies deriving revenue outside the U.S., slower world economic growth will negatively impact revenue and earnings growth of American companies. Domestically, America’s gross domestic product grew by only a meager 2.3% in the second quarter, which will negatively impact an already overpriced equity market.
Estimates Aug. 30, 2015
Trailing 12-month EPS for Dow Jones companies (Most Recent Quarter)